Cooler but still well above normal this week

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True winter in Minnesota is about 11 days old.

Jan. 6 is the first date when the Twin Cities has stayed consistently below the freezing mark this winter season. This week has been respectably cold across Minnesota for January, but another extended wave of mild Pacific air is heading for Minnesota next week. The coming thaw could last eight  or nine days.

First, let’s talk about a little snow in southern Minnesota on Thursday. 

A weak low-pressure wave will drift across southern Minnesota Thursday. The system will cause snow to develop across southern Minnesota. Most of the snow on Thursday will fall south of a line from Wheaton, in Traverse County, to the Twin Cities.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model shows the likely snow zone progression between 6 a.m. Thursday and midnight Friday:

The Twin Cities will ride the northern edge of the snow Thursday. We’ll likely just pick up a dusting of fluff in the Twin Cities. But accumulating snow between 1 and 2 inches will be common across southern Minnesota south and west of Minneapolis-St. Paul.

Here’s NOAA’s NAM 3 km model snowfall accumulation output through Thursday night: 

Another El Niño-driven mild Pacific breeze blows into Minnesota next week. 

Below, check out the upper-air loop on NOAA’s Global Forecast System model next week. Note the persistent pulses of milder-than-average jet stream winds across the Upper Midwest. 

The latest forecast model guidance on Wednesday from NOAA suggests a string of days next week with highs well into the 30s across much of Minnesota. Temperatures could hit 40 degrees once again. This could be a long thaw.

The Global Forecast System model temperature output below runs between next Monday and the following Monday, Jan. 29. 

So what little snow cover we have across much of Minnesota will likely be gone next week. We may even see some rain showers next week.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Another extended mild spell is on the way next week. 

Extended January thaw: We could hit 40 degrees next week

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