Cooler but still well above normal this week

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The temperatures at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport crept above freezing around 12:53 p.m. Monday. That’s the first time above freezing since Jan. 5 when we hit 35 degrees in the Twin Cities. 

Welcome to what looks like it could be one of the longest January thaws on record for the Twin Cities and much of southern Minnesota. 

Temperatures may hover near 32 degrees on Tuesday. 

After that, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model suggests temperatures will rise above the thawing point for at least 10 days. That would tie for the sixth-longest January thaw on record in the Twin Cities. 

Highs this week will gradually rise through the 30s across all of Minnesota. By this weekend temperatures could be above freezing statewide. 

A January thaw is a common feature of Minnesota midwinter weather. Keep in mind the average high and low for Minnesota remain below freezing all month. The average high and low for the Twin Cities on Jan. 22 are 23 and 8 degrees. 

Here are some interesting data points for the January thaw in the Twin Cities:

The January thaw occurs when the upper air pattern shifts from northwest Arctic flow to more westerly Pacific airflow. 

 from the Minnesota State Climatology Office. 

The overall upper-air pattern favors mild Pacific flow overall across much of the United States into the first days of February. 

Monday’s 12Z European model run suggests temperatures in the 40s across southern Minnesota next Wednesday, Jan. 31, with 50s lurking upstream in South Dakota.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A persistent flow of mild Pacific air will keep temperatures very mild for the next 10 days.

NOAA

NOAA via tropical tidbits

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 

Wintermission: One of the longest January thaws on record ahead

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