Here it comes: Biggest snow of winter through Wednesday night
Expect several inches of quick-hitting snow; winter storm warning for SW Minnesota
It’s Valentine’s Day, and winter is finally showing parts of Minnesota a little love.
A quick-hitting winter storm is likely to produce the biggest snowfall of the winter season so far for a relatively narrow swath of southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities area. The highest snowfall total in the Twin Cities so far this season is 1.8 inches back on Halloween.
Winter weather advisories include the Twin Cities and a winter storm warning is posted for southwestern Minnesota.
The low-pressure storm is tracking through Iowa. The relatively narrow but intense snow band is setting up near and south of the Twin Cities area. Snow is spreading across western and central Minnesota as I type this.
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A rainy mix will change quickly to snow late Wednesday afternoon and it will snow heavily in many locations including the Twin Cities for a few hours this evening.
The system
A low-pressure system is tracking through Iowa, producing rain in parts that state. It’s cold enough for a brief period of rain to change to snow across much of southern Minnesota.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model shows the snow zone progression through 2 a.m. Thursday:
Quick-hitting snowfall this evening
This system shows the trend of seeing snowfall rates go from zero to 60 in just a couple of hours. Heavy snow with quarter-mile visibility is falling across eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota.
Look for rain to change to snow, and snowfall to ramp up quickly this evening in the greater Twin Cities and much of southern Minnesota. Snow is already beginning to accumulate in western Minnesota.
I could see a quick couple of inches after the initial snowmelt on warm ground this evening.
Snowfall totals
Most of the area under the snow zone will pick up a range of 2 to 5 inches of snow through tonight. Lesser totals will fall north of the Twin Cities.
A few short-range forecast models suggest this system may produce some local 6 inch-plus snowfall totals, especially in southwestern Minnesota. There is a chance for this system to overperform in a narrow zone of intense lift.
Temperatures will drop below freezing this evening, so expect some slick roads through Wednesday night into early Thursday.
At least winter has shown up for a few days.