Cooler but still well above normal this week

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You knew our record-warm and nearly snowless winter movie would end this way. 

Two separate weather systems look likely to bring significant snowfall to central and southern Minnesota between Thursday and next Monday.

It’s still early in the forecast model forecast process, but indications as of Monday suggest total snowfall from the two systems could potentially drop as much as a foot of snow across parts of central and southern Minnesota by next Tuesday. 

Let’s take a look at the two systems and current model forecast trends as of Monday. 

The first weather system looks likely to push snow into western Minnesota Thursday with the bulk of the snow falling Thursday night. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model is typical of those that show snow in western Minnesota Thursday afternoon, spreading east into the Twin Cities and across southern Minnesota by Thursday night. 

Right now it appears the heaviest snow will likely fall Thursday night into the overnight hours. Forecast models suggest a range of snowfall potential as usual. The Canadian model leans on the lighter side with a broad range of 1 to 3 inches by Friday. 

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model cranks out more snow, with a broad zone of 2 to 4 inches and a swath of heavier snow topping 6 inches just south of the Twin Cities. 

The second system looks likely to bring more snow to central and southern Minnesota on Sunday and Monday. This system looks potentially bigger.

NOAA’s GFS model is typical of solutions that generate a slowly moving Colorado low that pushes a lead wave of snow into southern Minnesota on Sunday. The system then pushes the main (and potentially heavier) precipitation bands in Sunday night through Monday. 

If this scenario verifies it would produce a longer duration snowfall event that could cover part of Sunday and most all of Monday. This system looks complex and has the potential to change the location and magnitude of snowfall as it approaches. 

It’s too early to be confident about eventual snowfall totals and locations by next Monday. But multiple forecast models crank out a foot of snow or more across parts of central and southern Minnesota by next Monday between the two systems.  

Here’s the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model snowfall output by next Tuesday:

Bottom line, it appears likely we’ll get two plowable snowfall systems across much of central and southern Minnesota between Thursday and next Monday. It’s still early, so the track (and eventual snowfall output) of either system could change.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A pattern change is likely to bring significant snow to Minnesota in the next week. 

Pattern change brings potentially heavy snow through next weekend

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