Two snow systems still on track for Minnesota
First snow arrives Thursday night; bigger, wetter storm starts Sunday
The weather maps are finally delivering much-needed moisture to Minnesota in the next week, but you may have to shovel some snow in the process.
Two separate weather systems are still on track for Minnesota through next Tuesday. The first brings some snow Thursday night. The second system looks potentially bigger and wetter from Sunday through next Tuesday.
Let’s break down the systems and various forecast models’ likely outcomes.
System No. 1: Thursday night
Our first snow maker is a clipper-type low-pressure system. It will produce a swath of snow from western Minnesota that spreads east Thursday into Thursday night.
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We may see a few snow showers ahead of the main system, but the main wave of snow will push into western Minnesota around the Fargo-Moorhead area late Thursday afternoon. It will spread east along and either side of the Interstate 94 corridor and likely arrive in the greater Twin Cities by Thursday evening.
The heaviest snowfall looks likely around and after midnight Friday morning, Most forecast models end the snow in the Twin Cities by the morning rush hours Friday, but roads will likely be challenging from the snow that will fall overnight.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s FV-3 model shows the progression of the likely snow zone overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.
Overall snowfall accumulation still favors a wide swath of between 2 and 5 inches running between western Minnesota around Fargo-Moorhead through the Twin Cities. Lesser snowfall totals are likely north and south of the main band.
For the Twin Cities, it looks like the best chance for higher-end snowfall totals favor the northern Twin Cities, with lesser totals south.
What could go wrong? A few forecast models suggest less snow with the system as it tracks eastward into the Twin Cities. So it’s certainly possible that parts of the Twin Cities could end up closer to lower-end forecast snowfall totals.
The weather between the two systems looks quiet for most of Friday and Saturday.
System No. 2: Sunday through Tuesday
The second system on the weather maps looks potentially bigger, slower, and wetter.
A Colorado low appears ready to tap a deep fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture. That means an impressive moisture source with this storm could lead to heavy precipitation totals between 1 and 3 inches overall for much of Minnesota.
The biggest question with Sunday’s system is how much will fall as snow, an icy mix or rain?
NOAA’s Global Forecast System model shows the system using a lead wave of potentially heavy snow into Minnesota on Sunday. This model’s solution pushes enough warm air north of the system to change precipitation to a wintry mix and rain later Sunday into Monday.
Other forecast models suggest a later change to rain across southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities.
There are still a lot of unanswerable questions about our Sunday-Tuesday storm system. The system is spinning Wednesday out over the north Pacific Ocean. The storm track and temperature profile will likely change as the system approaches the western United States in the coming days.
But a snow-to-rain transition looks more likely than not at this point for much of southern Minnesota. In areas further north where precipitation remains all snow, snowfall totals over a foot look possible at this point.
The good news? It looks like we’ll pick up significant moisture. about 75 percent of Minnesota is in drought.
Stay tuned as we watch the forecast models handle these systems.