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Tracking rain and a little thunder late Tuesday

Scattered rain arrives late Tuesday night for the Twin Cities

NOAA NAM 3 km model 2
North American Mesoscale 3 km model between 7 p.m. Wednesday and 7 a.m. Thursday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Tropical Tidbits

We’re tracking a weak low-pressure system across Minnesota Wednesday into early Thursday.

The system will generate scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected, but a few cells could produce downpours and potentially small hail.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model in the map above shows showers moving into western Minnesota Wednesday evening. The cells then propagate eastward to around the Twin Cities and Duluth by around midnight.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center keeps all severe weather risks south of Minnesota on Wednesday. But it lays out a general thunderstorm area as far north as Duluth.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas Wednesday
NOAA

Overall precipitation looks light across most of Minnesota. But an inch of rain could fall along a narrow band from around Ortonville in western Minnesota through the Iron Range.

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
Precipitation output through Wednesday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Highs Wednesday and Thursday will reach the 70s south with 60s up north.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
NOAA

The warmest day of the next week will be Saturday. High in the 80s south with 70s north will feel balmy.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday
NOAA

Humidity levels will climb Saturday with dew points in the 60s. A chance for thunderstorms appears likely Saturday night.

Stay tuned.

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