Excessive heat watch in effect through Sunday

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The forecast models have upped the ante for severe weather in Minnesota on Tuesday. A flood watch has been added to the mix Tuesday for most of central and northeastern Minnesota, including the greater Twin Cities area. 

Multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms will sweep across Minnesota from late Monday night through Tuesday. The first wave of storms focuses on southern Minnesota Monday night. Then multiple waves of storms roam our landscape as the low moves through Minnesota Tuesday. 

There is a slight risk for severe storms across southern Minnesota Monday night, a marginal risk for the Twin Cities. The highest chance for severe weather is south of the Twin Cities Monday night across southeastern Minnesota.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model run as of late Monday afternoon shows scattered storms developing across southern Minnesota Monday evening. The best chance for storms around the Twin Cities favors the hours after about 10 p.m. through midnight.  

To call it Stormy Tuesday may be an understatement. Multiple waves of storms will rumble across Minnesota Tuesday. The first wave is likely to roll from southern Minnesota into the Twin Cities Tuesday morning. 

We may catch a break in between storm waves through the midday hours. But a second wave of storms is likely to develop in southern Minnesota in the early afternoon hours and race northeast into the greater Twin Cities area by late afternoon into Tuesday evening.

NOAA’s latest NAM 3 km model shows the two main storm waves riding northeast Tuesday: 

Much of southeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin is under an enhanced (Category 3 of 5) severe risk zone Tuesday. The Twin Cities is under a slight (Category 2 of 5) risk area with a marginal severe risk as you move north and west.

All modes of severe weather are possible Tuesday. That means severe weather watches and warnings are likely. Damaging wind and hail, flooding rainfall, and even a few strong tornadoes are possible especially south and east of the Twin Cities. 

This system is dragging a deep fetch of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That means storms will produce torrential downpours at times. In areas that see multiple storms stall, 

The flood watch includes most of northeastern Minnesota. 

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches appear likely in and near the watch zone. A few forecast models crank out local rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches Tuesday! 

So get ready for an active Tuesday. We may see multiple types of severe weather.  

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

An unseasonably deep low-pressure storm is heading for Minnesota. Multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms will sweep across Minnesota from late Monday night through Tuesday. 

Severe storms risk and flood watches Tuesday

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Twin Cities National Weather Service office

NOAA/Twin Cities National Weather Service

NOAA via tropical tidbits

Duluth National Weather Service

NOAA NAM 3 km model precipitation output 

Severe storms risk and flood watches Tuesday

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