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Widespread severe risk Tuesday for southern Minnesota

Storms likely to produce damaging winds, hail; tornadoes possible

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas Tuesday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Twin Cities National Weather Service office

It’s severe weather season in Minnesota.

A strong low-pressure system will track across Minnesota on Tuesday. The system is a once-in-a-decade strength low-pressure storm based on climatology from the Twin Cities National Weather Service office. The system will generate multiple rounds of thunderstorms with the potential to produce severe weather through Tuesday.

Here’s a breakdown of the system and likely storm timing and severe weather risk zones.

Severe risk Monday night

The system will likely spark the first wave of potentially severe storms across southern Minnesota Monday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center paints a marginal severe risk (Category 1 of 5) around the Twin Cities Monday evening. But the higher slight severe risk zone (Category 2 of 5) south of the Twin Cities is where severe storms are more likely Monday evening.

Severe weather risk areas 2
Severe weather risk areas through Monday night
NOAA, Twin Cities National Weather Service office

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows scattered thunderstorms developing around 7 p.m. Monday in southwestern Minnesota. The storms may arrive in the Twin Cities by around 10 p.m. to 11 p.m.

The strongest storms this evening are more likely across southern Minnesota including the Interstate 90 corridor towns of Albert Lea, Austin, and Rochester.

The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model below shows the likely storm development and progression between 7 p.m. and 11:59 p.m. Monday.

NOAA HRRR model
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model between 7 p.m. and 11:59 p.m. Monday.
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Severe risk Tuesday

Tuesday brings a more widespread severe weather risk to the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. The slight risk category is nudged farther north Tuesday and includes Mankato, the greater Twin Cities area, northeast to around Rice Lake, Wis.

A higher enhanced risk includes most of southern Minnesota Tuesday.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas Tuesday
NOAA, Twin Cities National Weather Service office

The highest severe risk is south of the Twin Cities, but storms anywhere in the risk area Tuesday have the potential to produce damaging winds and hail. and possibly tornadoes.

NOAA’s NAM 3 km model cranks out two main storm waves Tuesday. The first plows through southern Minnesota toward the Twin Cities area Tuesday morning.

The second and likely stronger wave develops across southern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and races into the Twin Cities late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

NOAA NAM 3 km model
North American Mesoscale 3 km model between 7 a.m. and 10 p.m. Tuesday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

All modes of severe weather — damaging winds, hail and tornadoes — are possible with Tuesday storms.

Heavy rainfall potential

This storm is also likely to produce heavy rainfall across much of Minnesota.

Forecast models typically lay out a swath of 2 to more than 4 inches locally from western Minnesota through central Minnesota. The Twin Cities and southern Minnesota appear likely to see 1 to 2 inches, but locally 3 inches is possible in some areas.

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
Precipitation output forecast into Wednesday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Keep an eye and ear out for severe weather watches and warnings Monday night and Tuesday across most of southern Minnesota!

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