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June monsoon: Heavy rainfall potential over the next 10 days?

Models crank out a mix of nice days and some potentially wet days ahead

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
Precipitation output forecast for the next 10 days
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Cue the June monsoon.

June is the wettest month of the year on average in Minnesota. The 30-year normal rainfall for the Twin Cities in June is 4.58 inches. And some forecast models are cranking out that much and more in just the next 10 days around parts of Minnesota.

I wrote about Tuesday and Wednesday’s rain and thunderstorm chances and severe weather risk zone early Monday afternoon. Now let’s focus on rainfall chances for the next 10 days. The bottom line? It looks like we’re entering an active and potentially very wet period.

We’ll enjoy some beautiful days between storm systems. But when it rains, it will likely pour.

In the map below, check out the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model forecast loop for this week and next week through Thursday. Don’t take this as gospel for rainfall timing and coverage, but rather see it as evidence of an active storm train rolling across Minnesota over the next 13 days.

NOAA GFS model 2
Global Forecast System model between June 11 and June 20
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model is similar to the Canadian model. The GFS cranks out widespread 1 to 4-inch rainfall with local 5-inch totals in the next 10 days.

NOAA GFS precipitation output
Global Forecast System precipitation output for the next 10 days
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

The European model is even more aggressive. It’s cranking out some 5 to 10-inch rainfall zones locally through the next 10 days.

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
Precipitation output forecast for the next 10 days
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

The highest rainfall and storm chances favor Tuesday morning, Wednesday evening and next weekend through the following Tuesday.

So enjoy the sunny warm days ahead in between weather systems, because it looks like we’ll get periodic deluges in the next 10 days.

Flooded fields near Hector, Minnesota Thursday September 12, 2019
Flooded fields near Hector, Minn., on Sept. 12, 2019
Paul Huttner | MPR News

And cue the next waves of mosquitoes.

Stay tuned.

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