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Tuesday morning showers; severe risk Wednesday

A slight risk includes the Twin Cities Wednesday. Large hail and damaging wind threat.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas Wednesday.
NOAA via Iowa Emergency Management

Our spectacular Monday weather brings one of the finest days of the year so far. Blue sky, bright sunshine, and less wind are making for this gorgeous day. Temperatures are topping out in the 70s across most of Minnesota Monday.

Forecast high temperatures Monday
Forecast high temperatures Monday.
NOAA

Tuesday brings morning showers and a few thunderstorms to Minnesota. NOAA’s FV3 model shows a broken line of showers and a few thunderstorms crossing Minnesota Monday night and moving through the Twin Cities early Tuesday morning between about 6 and 10 a.m. A few showers may pop up again behind the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The forecast model loop below runs between 1 a.m. and 7 p.m. Tuesday.

NOAA FV3 model
NOAA FV3 model between 1 a.m. Tuesday and 7 p.m. Tuesday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints a marginal (low) risk for severe storms Tuesday across eastern Minnesota.

Highs Tuesday will rise into the 80s across southern Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
Forecast high temperatures Tuesday.
NOAA

Bigger storms Wednesday

Wednesday brings a chance for more organized thunderstorm activity to Minnesota. A front will likely spark thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into evening. NOAA’s GFS model shows storms favoring northeast and southern Minnesota Wednesday evening. The forecast model loop below runs between 1 p.m. Wednesday and 1 a.m. Thursday.

NOAA GFS model
NOAA GFS model between 1 p.m. Wednesday and 1 a.m. Thursday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center lays out a slight risk for severe storms across much of Minnesota Wednesday. Here’s the discussion from Wednesday’s convective outlook.

By late afternoon, the strongest instability is forecast to be from eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 00Z/Thursday have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Some soundings suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates could approach 8 C/km. This environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail.

Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of cells. A wind-damage threat will also become likely as the storms gradually grow upscale. Some models suggest that a severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a cluster remains intact and moves eastward into the western Great Lakes.

Highs Wednesday will push well into the 80s. Dew points will climb to near 70 degrees so you’ll feel the humidity which will fuel storm potential.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday.
NOAA

Stay tuned.

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