Severe storms likely again Tuesday evening

Line of storms to push east across Minnesota Tuesday afternoon, evening

Severe weather risk areas 2
Severe weather risk areas Tuesday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Iowa State University

Get ready for another potential squall line Tuesday, Minnesota.

But first, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe thunderstorm watch until midnight Tuesday for most of southeastern Minnesota. The watch zone does not include the Twin Cities.

Severe thunderstorm watch
Severe thunderstorm watch until midnight

Tuesday storms

Forecast models suggest a line of strong to severe storms will develop across western and central Minnesota on Tuesday afternoon. A cold front cutting into a warm and humid tropical air mass will trigger a north-to-south squall line that could pack damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall.

NOAA’s North American Mesoscale 3 km resolution model at the top of this post shows the likely storm wave moving from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening:

NOAA NAM 3 km model
North American Mesoscale 3 km model between 4 p.m. Tuesday and midnight Wednesday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center lays out a slight risk zone (level 2 of 5 in yellow) across most of Minnesota Tuesday.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas Tuesday

Here’s the discussion from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center:

...Upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward to Kansas... Lingering/overnight convection may be ongoing over the start of the period in the vicinity of Minnesota, but should gradually diminish through the day. Meanwhile, a frontal wave is forecast to shift northeastward through the day from eastern South Dakota across northwestern Minnesota, along an advancing cold front.

Daytime heating ahead of the front will drive afternoon destabilization, with 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE evolving along the front. This should support storm development from northern Minnesota southwestward to west-central Kansas in the 18/20Z to 18/22Z time frame. While stronger flow aloft will remain displaced to the cool side of the front, amply strong mid-level southwesterlies atop the frontal zone should support shear sufficient for multicell/some supercell organization.

Resulting risks for hail/wind support continuation of SLGT risk across this region. Potential should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, before diminishing after dark.

The most likely timing for storms to cross the greater Twin Cities are is between about 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. Tuesday evening. Keep an eye and ear out for possible severe weather watches and warnings on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Drying out Wednesday

We catch a break in the rainfall Wednesday across Minnesota. It will be a beautiful June day with sunny skies and highs in the 70s.

Another chance of rain and thunder arrives Thursday into Saturday. Forecast models suggest that we could finally, mercifully dry out next week.

Stay tuned.