Flood watch again; another 2-6 inches of rain possible by Saturday

Severe weather risk Friday for southern Minnesota

Flash flood watch
Flash flood watch
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Here we go again.

A flood watch has been issued again for southern Minnesota from the Twin Cities area south into Iowa (see the image above).

Including the cities of Durand, Chanhassen, Red Wing, River Falls, Monticello, Minneapolis, Menomonie, Hastings, Le Sueur, Gaylord, Mankato, Albert Lea, Owatonna, Hudson, Faribault, Shakopee, St Paul, Hutchinson, St Peter, Blaine, Blue Earth, Victoria, Stillwater, Waseca, and Chaska

306 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024


* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of Minnesota, including the following areas, Anoka, Blue Earth, Carver, Dakota, Faribault, Freeborn, Goodhue, Hennepin, Le Sueur, McLeod, Nicollet, Ramsey, Rice, Scott, Sibley, Steele, Waseca, Washington and Wright and west central Wisconsin, including the following areas, Dunn, Pepin, Pierce and St. Croix.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more heavy rain.

Our next waves of potentially heavy rainfall arrive Thursday night through Saturday morning.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale 3 km model shows the likely progression of multiple waves of rain and thunderstorms across southern Minnesota between Thursday night and Saturday morning.

The forecast model loop below runs between 7 a.m. Thursday and 7 a.m. Saturday.

NOAA NAM 3 km model
North American Mesoscale 3 km model
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Rainfall totals between 2 and 4 inches will be common across southern Minnesota including the greater Twin Cities area. Local totals across southern Minnesota could reach 5 to 6 inches.

Rainfall forecast 2
Rainfall forecast
Twin Cities National Weather Service office

The good news? Most of flood-ravaged northern Minnesota will see less than an inch of rain.

Rivers rising

Much of Minnesota has seen 5 inches to more than 10 inches of rainfall in the past few weeks. That’s two months’ worth of rain in some areas.

All that water is running into major watersheds. Several rivers are in flood stage and will reach major to near record flood stage over the next week.

The Crow River in Delano west of the Twin Cities is forecast to reach the second-highest flood stage on record early next week:

Crow River at Delano
Crow River at Delano

The Mississippi River at St. Paul is forecast to reach major flood stage at 19.1 feet. That’s the highest level since 2019.

Mississippi River at St. Paul
Mississippi River at St. Paul

Drier next week

The forecast models suggest we may finally dry out starting Sunday. Plenty of sunshine will boost temperatures into the 70s and 80s Sunday.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday

Next week looks much drier right now.

Stay tuned.