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The forecast of a rainy 4th of July for much of Minnesota turned out to be spot on.

Waves of showers with embedded thunderstorms crossed much of Minnesota Thursday. The highest severe weather risk remained south of the greater Twin Cities area, but locally heavy rainfall totals are possible into Friday morning across southern Minnesota. With already saturated ground, it won’t take much rainfall to cause small creeks and streams to rise into early Friday. 

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center highlights the potential for flooding rains across parts of southern Minnesota. 

Most forecast models suggest less coverage for showers Thursday night. For those that are still planning to attend fireworks displays that are still on I would bring some rain gear, but many locations could see a break in the rain Thursday night. There will still be scattered showers overnight into Friday morning.

NOAA’s HRRR model updates Thursday afternoon shows the trend. The forecast model loop below runs between 4 p.m. Thursday and 7 a.m. Friday. 

Overall rainfall totals could still exceed an inch across much of southern Minnesota by Friday morning.

We get a break in the rain across most of Minnesota from later Friday through most of Saturday. Right now Saturday looks like the best day of the weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s across Minnesota.

Scattered showers return on Sunday. The medium-range forecast models suggest a trend toward drier weather late next week. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A rainy 4th of July will give way to mostly drier weather by Saturday. 

Scattered rain into Friday morning; coldest 4th of July in 32 years

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