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A special election for a western suburban state Senate seat that will decide whether Democrats can maintain control of the chamber for another two years, setting the stage for what could become the most expensive legislative race ever.

On Tuesday, former state Sen. Ann Johnson Stewart won the DFL primary in Senate District 45, which covers communities near Lake Minnetonka and further west. She is moving on to face Republican candidate Kathleen Fowke, a west metro realtor, in November. Fowke ran against former DFL state Sen. Kelly Morrison in 2022 and lost. In the Republican primary, she ran unopposed.

“This is going to be a really big race and I’m ready for it,” Johnson Stewart told MPR News on Wednesday. “I’m not naive about how difficult it’s going to be, but I’m also really ready to work.”

Fowke is also anticipating a deluge of interest and money.

“I just really hope that we keep it focused on our communities and our neighbors and the voters and just have an honest and respectful campaign on both sides,” she said.

The winner of the special election will determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the Minnesota Senate. The seat opened after DFL state Sen. Kelly Morrison stepped down to run for U.S. Congress. Her departure left the Senate split 33-33, pending the special election.

In other words, the race creates an opportunity for Republicans to break up the DFL trifecta. Political analysts believe millions of dollars could be funneled into the district as both parties try to gain the majority.

The race has already attracted the attention of national groups. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which works exclusively on building the party ranks in state legislatures, added the Minnesota Senate seat to its 2024 target map on Wednesday. The special designation brings more fundraising dollars and a brighter national spotlight to the race.

The west metro district spans 20 miles and includes Minnetonka, Wayzata and Orono. A drive through it reveals the stately mansions that dominate the lakeshore but also the modest single family homes that reveal the blend of households the candidates will need to tailor messages to.

It’s considered a swing district, meaning that Republicans and Democrats have similar support among voters. In the two House districts that share boundaries with the Senate district, one is held by a Republican and the other by a Democrat.

Morrison won the race against Fowke in 2022 by more than 12 percentage points in a year where Democrats outperformed expectations, largely due to turnout tied to the U.S. Supreme Court decision that reeled back abortion rights nationally.

This year, Fowke did not have a Republican primary challenger and has had her sights focused on the November race. She said this campaign is different than the race two years ago. She contends Democrats went too far with one-party control and are fed up with lingering inflation pressure.

“I believe that people are just looking for something better, they’re looking for a brighter spot,” she said in an interview Wednesday. “Life can be so much easier, so much better. We don’t have to have the constant chaos.”

Republicans believe they have a strong chance at flipping the seat. Political analysts expect $3 million to $5 million could be spent in the district as both parties try to gain the seat. The record amount of spending in competitive races around the state is a little over $2 million.

Abou Amara, an attorney and a Democratic strategist, predicts Republicans will focus their efforts on the state Senate race because a single win will have a major impact. National Republican donor groups have spent little money in the U.S. Senate race against Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar. A Republican president has not won the state since 1972.

“I suspect Republicans to funnel all of their money, or a lot of their money, into this district because that’s the one area they can take control of some form of government,” Amara said.

At the end of July, Johnson Stewart had a little more than $25,000 in hand. Fowke had $140,000. But those numbers will rise quickly.

“You’re going to see some significant spending coming into that district from all over the place,” said Republican party operative and former state Sen. Paul Anderson, who represented a neighboring district for a single term. “You’re going to see some saturation rates in a district that we’ve never seen before.”

A similar situation occurred in 2018, when then-Republican Sen. Michelle Fischbach, stepped down from the Senate to run as Tim Pawlenty’s running mate in his unsuccessful governor bid. Fischbach’s resignation left the Senate equally divided. Republican Jeff Howe won the special election against DFLer Joe Perske, preserving a one-seat majority for the Republicans.

That majority held until 2022 when Democrats grabbed a single-seat majority now being tussled over again.

Ellie Roth

Author

A special election for a west metro Senate seat will determine which party has control of the Minnesota Senate. The race creates an opportunity for Republicans to break up the DFL trifecta. 

With majority-making state Senate race, Minnesota’s priciest legislative campaign could be afoot

Ben Hovland | MPR News

A woman in a white tank top smiles for a photo

With majority-making state Senate race, Minnesota’s priciest legislative campaign could be afoot

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