Severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings issued for Twin Cities metro area

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Wednesday’s forecast models continue to scream snow for parts of Minnesota on Halloween. 

The map below shows the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest forecast for snowfall totals Thursday.

Wednesday afternoon’s latest 18Z model runs continue the trend of changing rain to snow across eastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin Thursday morning. 

Warm ground will eat up the first inch or two that falls. But forecast models indicated intense snowfall rates that will likely overcome warm ground to produce accumulations in the heaviest snow band. 

Let’s look at some midday Wednesday model runs.

NOAA’s NAM 3 km model suggests a band of rain changing to heavy snow across eastern Minnesota from near the Twin Cities through Duluth and northwestern Wisconsin. The forecast model loop below runs between 1 a.m. and 1 p.m. Thursday.

Now look at NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model run from 18Z Wednesday. This solution puts heavier snow right over the Twin Cities and northward. The forecast model loop below runs between 1 a.m. and 1 p.m. Thursday. 

Here are some snowfall outputs from the midday Wednesday runs.

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model continues the trend of laying out the heaviest snow band just west and north of the Twin Cities through The North Shore: 

NOAA’s NAM 3 km model edges accumulating snow into the northwestern half of the Twin Cities:

And NOAA’s HRRR model shifts the heavier snow zone right into the Twin Cities area: 

It’s impossible to know which model solution will pan out Thursday. The heaviest accumulating snow will likely still lay out north and west of the Twin Cities, but snow will likely fly for a few hours in the Twin Cities on Thursday late morning and afternoon. 

It still can’t be ruled out that we’ll see some sloppy accumulation in the Twin Cities.

Most forecast models suggest the precipitation will move out toward the evening. It’s going to be a chilly night for trick-or-treating in Minnesota.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

An early season snow system blows through Minnesota Thursday.

Forecast models continue with snowy solutions on Halloween

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