Cooler but still well above normal this week

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Here we go. The season’s first severe weather risk areas have been posted for much of southeastern Minnesota Friday.

On the map above, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 

 lays out zones of marginal and slight risk.

A powerful spring storm will spark a severe weather outbreak across much of the Mississippi Valley and the southeast Friday and Saturday. Minnesota will ride the northern edge of the severe risk zone with the best chance for strong to severe storms mainly on Friday evening. 

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model shows the system with scattered storms developing in Iowa Friday afternoon and surging into southern Minnesota Friday evening. 

The model loop below runs between noon Friday and noon Saturday. Watch as cold air changes rain to snow in western Minnesota Saturday.

NOAA’s convective outlook for Friday describes the storm setup across the Mississippi Valley region:

Highs Thursday will warm into the 60s across much of southern Minnesota.

Friday likely brings the warmest day of the year so far as warm advection blows highs into the 70s across southern Minnesota. 

The most favored time window for severe storms across southern Minnesota Friday is between about 6 and 9 p.m. We’ll get a finer resolution on the severe threat as we move into the short-range forecast model window over the next 24 hours. 

The Twin Cities National Weather Service office lays out the meteorological detail in Wednesday’s forecast discussion:

Rain will change to snow on the colder backside of the system by Saturday morning across western Minnesota. 

Right now, forecast models including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are cranking out a band of heavy snow potential for western Minnesota with little snow in the east.

Stay tuned as we watch this potent spring storm evolve into Friday.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A powerful spring storm winds up with scattered storms that could pack downpours, high winds and hail Friday.

Season's first severe risk for southern Minnesota Friday

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