Fire danger, smoke and air quality alerts continue
Red flag warnings for most of Minnesota; rain chances rise by Thursday
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Our unseasonable near-record warmth and dryness continues across Minnesota into Tuesday evening. A July-like air mass is pushing temperatures to near-record levels again across much of Minnesota.
Red flag warnings and air quality alerts continue until 9 p.m. Tuesday night:
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN
1008 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR POTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY... .
Strong southerly winds are forecast once again today, although they will be weaker than Sunday and Monday. Afternoon RH values will dip into the 15 to 25 percent range across the Northland with high temperatures generally in the 80s to near 90 degrees.
These conditions will create critical fire weather conditions over nearly all of northeast Minnesota (except for the immediate Lake Superior shore areas) and portions of northwest WI, mainly around the pine barrens. Near-critical conditions are forecast over north-central Wisconsin due to lighter winds.
1008 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Koochiching, North St. Louis, Northern Cook and Lake, North Itasca, Central St. Louis, North Cass, South Itasca, South Cass, Crow Wing, Northern Aitkin, South Aitkin, Carlton and South St. Louis and Pine.
* WINDS...South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 18 percent.
* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite could spread rapidly and become difficult to control. Outdoor burning is not recommended.
Temperatures are in the 90s again in the Red River Valley and most of northwestern Minnesota. Most of the state is well into the 80s on this summery Tuesday afternoon in May.
Numerous high-temperature records are likely across northwestern Minnesota Tuesday. The Twin Cities will likely fall short of the record high of 92 degrees set in 2007, but temperatures are running about 20 degrees above the normal high of 68 degrees.
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Smoke alerts continue for northeastern Minnesota due to multiple wildfires:
The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) has extended an air quality alert for northeast Minnesota until 4 p.m. on Wednesday, May 14. The affected area includes Hibbing and Ely.
A pair of large wildfires — the Camp House fire and the Jenkins Creek fire — remain uncontained in the Superior National Forest of northeast Minnesota. The fires are located near Brimson, or approximately 25 miles north-northwest of Two Harbors. Additional wildfires may spread or develop in favorable hot, dry, and breezy weather conditions today. Southerly winds will transport smoke northward into northern St. Louis and Lake counties.
Fine particle levels are expected to reach the orange air quality index (AQI) category, a level considered unhealthy for sensitive groups, across northeast Minnesota. This area includes Hibbing and Ely. In the orange area, sensitive groups should limit prolonged or heavy exertion and time spent outdoors.
Wednesday brings another summery day to Minnesota.
Higher dew points Wednesday and Thursday
Dew points have been in the desert-dry 20s and 30s across northern Minnesotan early this week.
A southerly flow from the Gulf will advect low level moisture into Minnesota Wednesday and Thursday. Dew points will gradually rise into the 50s and 60s. That should help dampen fire behavior somewhat in the coming days.
Scattered rain Thursday
A low-pressure system will spin into Minnesota Thursday. Scattered rain and some thunderstorms will roam Minnesota from late Wednesday night into Friday.
NOAA’s FV3 model gives you the flavor of scattered rain and thunder cells spinning in. The forecast model loop below runs between 1 a.m. and 7 p.m. Thursday.
Overall rainfall totals may be spotty as usual with warm-season convection in Minnesota. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other models suggest an inch of rain is likely from about the Twin Cities northward, but coverage may be spotty.
There is a marginal risk for a couple severe storms from late Wednesday night through Thursday.
Cooler temperatures behind the front will be a relief for firefighters as we head into the weekend.
