Heaviest rainfall zone setting up through central Minnesota into Friday

Our June monsoon has returned.

A stalled warm front in southern Minnesota is focusing potentially heavy rainfall along and north of that boundary into Friday. You can see the rainfall zone setting up Thursday afternoon near and north of the Twin Cities.

The latest forecast model trends Thursday have shifted the heaviest rainfall zone a bit north.

On the map below, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model shows clusters of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms crossing central Minnesota between 7 p.m. Thursday and 7 p.m. Friday.

Forecast models continue to crank out some impressive rainfall totals through Friday.

I like the look of this National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Weather Research and Forecasting model that suggests an inch or so in much of the Twin Cities with heavier 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals likely from the northern Twin Cities into central Minnesota. Here’s the map:

Thursday drought update

We’re doing pretty well with above normal rainfall this month over much of central and southern Minnesota, but dryness continues in much of the north.

This rain system may bring some relief to the southern area of the drought in parts of Cass County, but the heaviest rains will likely fall south of the Bemidji and Red Lakes drought zone.

This weekend brings a mix of sun, clouds, and a few lingering showers and thunderstorms. We’ll enjoy many dry hours this weekend, but expect a few hours of possible rain as well.

Next week looks potentially thundery, warmer and more humid with highs in the 80s.

Stay tuned.