Severe storms overnight; extreme heat warning this weekend
Strong storms likely in Twin Cities between 3 and 5 a.m. Heat index over 100 degrees this weekend!
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From stormy to steamy.
Our Minnesota forecast takes a turbulent turn overnight. Then get ready for oppressive heat and humidity levels this weekend. Let’s start with the storms.
Severe risk and storm timing
A tropical warm front will set up across central Minnesota through Friday night. These strong summer warm fronts are notorious in the meteorological community for spawning severe nocturnal storm outbreaks that happen in the overnight hours. We’re likely to see two distinct storms waves through Friday night.
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Wave #1 Thursday night into Friday morning
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints a slight risk zone across much of central Minnesota overnight including the Twin Cities area.
The first storm wave will likely bubble up after dark along the warm frontal zone in western Minnesota near and around the Fargo-Moorhead area. The storm cluster will roll southeast along a zone either side of I-94 and likely arrive in the greater Twin Cities between about 3-5 a.m. Friday.
NOAA’s FV3 model seems to have a good handle on the overnight storm tracks.
Our overnight storms will likely pack torrential downpours, high winds, and possibly large hail. Expect severe weather watches and possible warnings overnight for much of central Minnesota. Keep your NOAA weather radio handy tonight. It will sound an alert if severe storms approach your location.
Wave #2 Friday night into early Saturday
Most of Friday looks dry and increasing hot and humid across Minnesota. Highs will push well into the 90s in the southwest. Dew points will rise to the tropical 70-degree mark by Friday evening in many areas.
That additional moisture will be fuel for another cluster of severe storms late Friday night. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center raises the risk level to enhanced for much of northwest Minnesota Friday night into early Saturday.
NOAA’s FV3 model tracks multiple waves of likely severe storms crossing northern Minnesota Friday night into Saturday morning.
Storms Friday night will likely stay week north of the Twin Cities. But I’m pretty concerned about the setup across northern Minnesota. All the ingredients look to be in place for what could be a possible derecho-style blow down with numerous trees down from northwest Minnesota all the way to the North Shore.
The storms will likely clear the North Shore by around 6 a.m. Saturday. So hopefully Grandma’s Marathon will go off without a hitch with temperatures in the 50s and 60s for most of the race.
Extreme heat warning this weekend
The rest of Minnesota will swelter in the 90s to around 100 degrees in the southwest.
The plume of tropical moisture slogging into Minnesota this weekend is stifling. Dew points well into the 70s will hang around. We could see dew points hit 80 degrees in parts of Minnesota this weekend!
The good news is this hot front will only last for 2 days. A refreshing cold front will bring storm chances and highs back into the 70s by Monday.
Stay safe these next few stormy and steamy days, Minnesota.
