Prompts winter weather advisories as cold air moves in Friday night

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The latest forecast models looking ahead into Thursday suggest very spotty coverage for thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model run suggests a possible cluster of thunderstorms developing in northern Minnesota Thursday morning and possibly grazing parts of the Twin Cities late Thursday afternoon. 

The forecast model loop below runs between 7 a.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Friday.

We’ll still enjoy more dry hours than wet hours the next few days. But scattered rain and thunderstorms will return to the forecast for Thursday and Friday.

As usual, forecast models differ on precise storm timing and coverage. I expect a couple of different storm waves to cross Minnesota starting as early as overnight into Thursday morning. 

On the map below, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model shows the nature of scattered storm waves between Wednesday night and late Friday.

There is a marginal severe risk for much of Minnesota the next few days. But locally heavy rainfall is more likely with a few slow-moving heavy downpours. 

Overall, rainfall totals look likely to fall to around an inch or more with locally heavier totals. Local rainfall totals of 2-plus inches are possible through Friday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration paints a slight risk for excessive (flash flooding) rainfall across most of Minnesota Thursday into Friday.

So enjoy our continued nice summer weather in between possible storms the next few days.

Right now, the weekend looks mainly dry with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees Saturday and highs well into the 80s by Sunday.  

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Scattered rain and thunder returns to parts of Minnesota Thursday and Friday.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NOAA via pivotal weather.

ECMWF via Pivotal Weather

European (ECMWF) model precipitation output

Occasional thunderstorms return Thursday through Friday

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