Breathing easier: Air quality improves but another shot of smoke possible Monday

We’re breathing easier across much of Minnesota. A fresher southwest breeze has pushed the worst of the gunky Canadian wildfire smoke eastward into far eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Air quality as of Sunday afternoon was in the good range in western Minnesota with moderate to lingering unhealthy pockets in the central and east.

NOAA’s HRRR near-surface smoke output shows one smoky smudge leaving Minnesota as the next wave pushes in from the north Monday. Another wave in the Dakotas Tuesday may push into Minnesota once again. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 p.m. Sunday and 1 p.m. Tuesday.

The air quality forecast for Monday shows the worst of the smoke across northern Minnesota once again. (map at top of post)

Here’s the MPCA air quality forecast discussion updated Sunday.

Updated Sun, Jul 13, 2025

A statewide Air Quality Alert continues until 9 AM Monday. Cleaner air will move into the state from the west on Sunday and air quality will gradually improve across southern MN through the day. Southwest MN will see the greatest improvement in air quality and fine particle levels will likely drop below alert criteria by afternoon in this region. East central Minnesota can expect gradual improvement but fine particle levels may but may remain in the Orange (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups) category. Air quality across northeast MN will likely remain in the Red (Unhealthy) category through the day on Sunday. Air quality is improving across northwest Minnesota, but another round of smoke will move into this region early Sunday afternoon and air quality may degrade back into the Red category. This next round of smoke will impact the northern one-third of the state through the end of the day on Monday and produce air quality in the Red category on Monday for this region. The air quality alert will likely need to be extended through Monday for northern MN. Air quality for central and southern MN should be in the Yellow (moderate) category on Monday.

Some rain has fallen in a few of the Canadian wildfire zones. But active fires will still pump occasional smoke plumes toward Minnesota this upcoming week.

Highs Monday will have the look and feel of mid-July with temperatures into the toasty upper 80s to near 90 degrees. But note the cooler 70s north. Preview of coming attractions.

Thunderstorms increase Tuesday

Monday looks summery but quiet across most of Minnesota. But a frontal system moving in Tuesday will increase thunderstorm coverage across our state. NOAA’s FV3 model shows the focus in central and northern Minnesota spreading gradually southward. The forecast model loop below runs between midnight and 7 p.m. Tuesday.

Cooler air blows in from the north Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 70s south and 60s north!