Prompts winter weather advisories as cold air moves in Friday night

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Welcome to peak summer heat and thunderstorm season.

Our steamy deep tropical air mass is fuel for scattered storms that will pop up through Wednesday. Forecast models and stability indices still keep the heaviest storms risk across central and northern Minnesota through the overnight hours. 

But a couple of the short range afternoon forecast model runs suggest few isolated thundershowers are possible near the Twin Cities anytime after 9 p.m. to 10 p.m. Tuesday evening.

A flood watch continues for northeast Minnesota until Thursday.

Heat index values will reach 100 degrees again in southeast Minnesota Wednesday. Cooler weather filters in from the north.

 has been posted again for Wednesday for all of southern Minnesota.

Scattered storms will continue across much of Minnesota Wednesday. There’s considerable spread in model solutions on timing and coverage for thunderstorms Wednesday. That’s pretty typical with weaker summer synoptic weather patterns like the one we have now. 

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center lays out a slight risk zone further southward including the Twin Cities Wednesday. (map at top of post)

NOAA’s NAM 3 km model seems to have a reasonable idea of a couple of waves of thunderstorms forming Wednesday. It favors one morning and multiple afternoon storms waves possible. The forecast model loop below runs between 4 a.m. and 7 p.m. Wednesday.

The best chance for severe storms around the Twin Cities seems to favor the late afternoon early evening time period.

Stay tuned for possible watches and warnings Wednesday!

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A steamy and active weather pattern continues this week. The strongest storms continue to favor central and northern Minnesota.

Strongest storms north overnight; isolated storms possible in Twin Cities

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