Better air quality forecast for most of Minnesota

There’s good news for Minnesota’s air quality this week. Good air quality in on the maps for the first time in quite a while across western Minnesota Wednesday. Air quality is moderate in most of the east including the Twin Cities area.

But there’s still smoke across Wisconsin and edging into northeast Minnesota Wednesday afternoon.

The MPCA has extended the air quality alert for northeast Minnesota until 7 p.m. Wednesday.

The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) has extended an air quality alert for northeast Minnesota. The alert is now in effect until 7 p.m. on Wednesday, Aug. 6. The affected area includes Two Harbors, Hibbing, Ely, Duluth, and the Tribal Nations of Grand Portage and Fond du Lac.

Heavy surface smoke continues to rotate northwestward around an area of high pressure and into northeastern Minnesota, and is therefore expected to persist through the afternoon. Southerly winds will result in increasingly cleaner air with time, and fine particle pollution concentrations should drop below the alert threshold by this early evening.

Fine particle levels are expected to reach the orange air quality index (AQI) category, a level considered unhealthy for sensitive groups, across northeast Minnesota. This area includes Two Harbors, Hibbing, Ely, Duluth, and the Tribal Nations of Grand Portage and Fond du Lac. In the orange area, sensitive groups should limit prolonged or heavy exertion and time spent outdoors.

The forecast for the rest of the week looks good for most of Minnesota, thanks to southerly winds. The next cold front due this weekend may drag another swath of smoke in tow especially in northern Minnesota. But some of the Canadian wildfire zones are getting rain this week. That may limit some smoke.

Here’s the latest forecast discussion from MPCA.

Updated Wed, Aug 6, 2025

KEY MESSAGES: 1.) An air quality alert has been extended to 7 pm today (Wednesday) across northeastern Minnesota 2.) Another round of heavy surface smoke may impact Minnesota beginning Sunday. DETAILED DISCUSSION: Heavy surface smoke continues to rotate from Wisconsin and Michigan northwestward into northeastern Minnesota, and is now expected to persist through the afternoon. Southerly winds will transport increasingly cleaner air with time, and smoke concentrations should drop below alert criteria this evening. Orange (unhealthy for sensitive groups) AQI is forecast today across northeastern Minnesota, and Green (good) or Yellow (moderate) AQI is forecast for the rest of the state due to lighter concentrations of wildfire smoke. There is a low probability for Northwestern Minnesota to be impacted by a pocket of heavier surface smoke following a cold front this evening into Thursday, but most models keep it in Canada. A warming trend is expected towards the end of the week, and ground-level ozone becomes a concern in and around the Twin Cities due to the thinning but lingering wildfire smoke. However, dewpoints will be on the rise as well which will limit ground-level ozone production. Yellow AQI is forecast for ozone in and around the Twin Cities on Thursday and Friday. Looking further ahead, an area of low pressure will move through the region this weekend, and heavy surface Canadian wildfire smoke may follow, reaching northwestern Minnesota by Saturday night or Sunday morning. This smoke may spread further into Minnesota on Monday. The largest source of uncertainty with this forecast revolves around the potential for substantial rain across some of the Canadian wildfires this week, which would limit the amount of smoke they can produce, and thus be transported into Minnesota. Confidence is growing, though, for at least some heavy smoke to impact at least portions of northern Minnesota during this time. Stay tuned for updates.