Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Dog Days of summer: Increasingly steamy with spotty storm chances ahead

Highs in the 90s by Friday afternoon in the south.

Forecast high temperatures Friday
Forecast high temperatures Friday.
NOAA

Welcome to the Dog Days of summer Minnesota.

The ancient Greeks and Romans noticed the so called Dog Star Sirius risking in the late summer sky near the sun in the morning. They believed the bright star added extra heat to the atmosphere during July into August.

The Dog Days of summer are loosely defined as the period between July 3 to around August 11 in the Northern Hemisphere. These weeks are typically the warmest and most humid weeks of the year in most of the northern hemisphere.

Summer peak average high temperature
Summer peak average high temperature.
NOAA data via Brian Brettschneider.

Increasingly steamy

Our forecast features southerly winds and a gradual warming trend the rest of this week. High will reach the mid to upper 80s across much of Minnesota Thursday.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday.
NOAA

By Friday lower 90s will cover parts of the south. (map at top)

Dew points will also rise across Minnesota the rest of this week.

A combination of Gulf moisture and corn sweat will push dew points into the tropical upper 60s to 70s through Friday. Note how dew points tend to rise during the day as sunshine boosts evaporation from soils and corn sweat pulls additional moisture from corn and other plants into the lower atmosphere.

NOAA FV3 model dew point output
NOAA FV3 model dew point output through Friday.
ECMWF via Pivotal Weather

Spotty storms

Thunderstorm coverage looks fairly spotty the next few days across Minnesota. NOAA’s NAM 3 km model is typical of models like the European that develop a storms complex in the Dakotas Thursday evening and track it into Minnesota overnight. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 p.m. Thursday and 7 a.m. Friday.

NOAA NAM 3 km model
NOAA NAM 3 km model between 7 p.m. Thursday and 7 a.m. Friday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

The highest risk for any severe storms favors the Dakotas into western Minnesota.

A cool front this weekend brings a chance of scattered storms. We may see some more wildfire smoke drift south this weekend across Minnesota once again.

Stay tuned.