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State Fair forecast: Record attendance weather ahead this weekend?

Forecast looks perfect for large State Fair crowds through this weekend

A large crowd walks through the fair grounds
Thousands of people flood the streets during the closing weekend of the Minnesota State Fair Sept. 1, 2024.
Nicole Neri for MPR News 2024

It’s state fair time in Minnesota. How did that happen so fast exactly?

One reason, of course, is that Labor Day is on Sept. 1 this year, so Aug. 21 is the earliest possible start date for the 12-day run of the fair.

But it also seems to me like summer flew by this year. We’ve had so many rain and wildfire smoke days that it seems like we lost a month of summer with so many indoor days.

But we’re about to make up some of those lost outdoor weather days just in time for the fair.

The forecast for the opening weekend of the fair looks like just about the best I have ever seen. Sunny to partly cloudy skies and increasingly comfortable temperatures may support huge crowds at the fair through opening weekend.

It begins on late summery notes — blue skies and sunshine Thursday with highs in the lower 80s.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Friday brings another beautiful temperature pattern with highs in the upper 70s.

Forecast high temperatures Friday
Forecast high temperatures Friday
NOAA

September preview this weekend

A cool front sails southeast across Minnesota Friday. It brings a slight shower chance overnight into with another chance for spotty passing showers Friday afternoon, but right now, any raindrops Friday look mostly light and transient with a few passing showers that may last a few minutes at best.

On the map below, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model shows the spotty shower trend into Saturday.

European ECMWF model
European model between Thursday and Saturday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

If you like light sweatshirt weather for the fair, this weekend looks like your time. Saturday features mixed sun and clouds drifting southeast on fresh northwest breezes. Highs Saturday will feel more like late September with highs in the 60s.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday
NOAA

Sunday brings less wind and more sun with highs in the mid-60s!

Temperatures next week look likely to recover into the 70s most days.

This looks like a great run of weather for the 2025 Minnesota State Fair.

If you’re at the fair next Wednesday Aug. 27, please come see the MPR weather team with myself, Sven Sundgaard and Mandy Thalhuber. We’ll be live at the MPR booth on the corner of Judson and Nelson between noon and 1 p.m.

State Fair 2024
Mandy Thalhuber, Sven Sundgaard, and Paul Huttner at the MPR booth at the 2024 Minnesota State Fair.
Paul Huttner | MPR News

See you at the fair, Minnesota!