Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Pattern change: Occasional rain and thunder into the weekend

A couple hours of rain likely daily into the weekend; locally heavy downpours possible

Twin Cities forecast at a glance
Twin Cities forecast at a glance
Twin Cities National Weather Service office

Keep the umbrella handy the next few days.

A slowly moving low-pressure system will crawl across Minnesota into the upcoming weekend. Bouts of occasional rain and thunder mark a change to our daily weather routine compared to the last several very warm and dry days.

On the map below, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model picks up on the east-to-west oriented frontal zone with focused rain and thunderstorms through central Minnesota just north of the Twin Cities.

Additional rain and thunder cells will form in scattered areas, possibly including the Twin Cities, through Thursday night.

NOAA NAM 3 km model
North American Mesoscale 3 km model between 7 p.m. Wednesday and 7 p.m. Friday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Cells dropped some small, one-half inch diameter hail near Becker around 3:30 p.m. Wednesday:

  • 1 NNW Becker [Sherburne Co, MN] Broadcast Media reports Hail of mothball size (M0.50 Inch) at 3:30 PM CDT -- Time estimated between the report (3:23 PM) and the radar imagery. Report relayed via Slack.

Severe weather is not expected with this system. A few cells could produce heavy downpours, gusty winds and possibly some small hail, along with lightning and thunder.

Rainfall will be patchy as usual with this type of convection. Rainfall totals between Wednesday and Sunday could add up to between 1 and 2 inches locally.

Here’s the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model rainfall output through Sunday:

European (ECMWF) model precipitation output
Model precipitation output through Sunday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Temperatures will be slightly cooler the next several days but will a little above normal in most areas. Look for highs in the 70s across most of southern Minnesota through the upcoming weekend.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday
NOAA