Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

All or nothing: Localized thundershowers bring locally heavy rainfall totals

Heavy rainfall totals possible under spotty storms into the weekend

Droplets form on the surface of a puddle
Rain pools on West 3rd Street in downtown Red Wing, Minn., during a rainstorm on April 16, 2024.
Ben Hovland | MPR News 2024

It’s an all-or-nothing rainfall pattern across much of Minnesota these days.

Our latest weather system is different from other storms. There’s no strong cold front driving a narrow line of storms moving predictably across Minnesota. It’s not a big, well-organized storm producing a widespread rain or snow shield across half the state.

This weak and diffuse low-pressure system is spreading out highly localized thundershowers. That means most of us are dry at any moment. But if you’re (un?) lucky enough to get under one of these, a hard rain’s gonna fall.

Check out some of these localized but heavy rainfall totals from Wednesday especially north and west of the Twin Cities:

Rainfall totals
Rainfall totals through Thursday morning
Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network

Scattered rains will drift north over the next couple days. The best chance for more numerous showers in the Twin Cities favors Thursday evening through the overnight hours.

On the map below, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km resolution model below shows the trends between 7 p.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Sunday.

NOAA NAM 3 km model
North American Mesoscale 3 km model between 7 p.m. Thursday and 1 a.m. Sunday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Temperatures through the upcoming weekend will be significantly cooler than our 90-plus degree highs from Tuesday. Friday brings 60s north with 70s south.

Forecast high temperatures Friday
Forecast high temperatures Friday
NOAA

The still-early read on weather for Saturday’s Farm Aid concert at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis favors the highest rain chances in the morning to midday hours. Skies appear to be trending drier later Saturday afternoon and evening, but we still cant rule out rain at the event later Saturday.

Right now it looks like the majority of scattered rains will gradually move out of Minnesota later Saturday into Sunday. Sunday looks like the warmer and drier day of the weekend.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday
NOAA

Next week looks mild with highs in the 60s north to 70s south early next week. There are signs 70s and 80s could return to Minnesota late next week.

NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook
6 to 10-day temperature outlook
NOAA

Stay tuned.