Farm income is declining in the Upper Midwest
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Upper Midwest farm incomes fell in late 2025, even as national crop production was strong.
The Minneapolis Federal Reserve surveys the same farm lenders in Minnesota, Montana, both Dakotas and Wisconsin each quarter. Those bankers said that in the fourth quarter of 2025, farm incomes and investment declined.
Joe Mahon, a regional outreach director at the Minneapolis Fed, said high production levels are a “double-edged sword.”
“Even though that means a higher volume of commodities to sell, that's going to have the effect of putting downward pressure on those commodity prices,” he said.
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Respondents were also asked about their prediction for the next quarter, which runs through March, and most are expecting the trends to continue.
“Almost two-thirds said that they expect farm incomes are going to decrease further,” said Mahon. “Only 6 percent are expecting an increase in farm income [compared to the same time last year].”
He said livestock farmers are doing better than crop producers, in part because they benefit from low crop prices.
The survey isn’t a statistical analysis and had few respondents — just 36. Mahon said they are like a “panel of experts.”
“We have these lenders that are across our district who specialize in agricultural lending in their community,” he said. “They know their customers really well, and they know their customers' markets really well, so they have a really good sense for what's happening with their finances.”
