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Batten down the hatches, Minnesota. Two separate and powerful wintry storms will bring high winds and heavy snow to different parts of Minnesota through Sunday. 

We’ve got blizzard and winter storm warnings flying for the north already. And we’ll likely see winter storm watches and warnings and possibly blizzard warnings in the south as we head toward the weekend.

Never a dull weather moment this time of year in Minnesota.

Let’s break down the two powerful weather systems and what to expect through Sunday.

System No. 1: High winds, heavy snow north

Our first powerful storm races through Minnesota Thursday night into Friday. This tightly wrapped low-pressure storm tracks north of the Twin Cities into Friday morning.

On the map below, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest 18Z High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model run shows the system laying down heavy snow in the north with a mix of mostly rain in the south, including the Twin Cities area.

The tight pressure gradient wrapped around the low will produce severe wind gusts across most of Minnesota especially overnight into Friday morning. 

This system looks like a land hurricane capable of wind gusts to near 60 mph in open areas. 

 are in effect for most of Minnesota into Friday. Here’s the National Weather Service information:

Heavy snowfall and high winds will combine to produce 

 in the northern Red River Valley and along the North Shore. The National Weather Service reports:

Here are the details for Minnesota North Shore blizzard warning. High winds and snowfall of 10 to 15 inches will make travel nearly impossible: 

Winter storm warnings cover the rest of northern Minnesota between blizzard zones. Widespread snowfall of between 4 and 10 inches is likely through Friday.

System No. 2: Heavy snow south Saturday night and Sunday

The second powerful storm blows into mostly southern Minnesota Saturday night through Sunday. This system is a textbook powerful 

These systems pack the dynamics and moisture to produce heavy snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour in the peak dendritic growth snow zone. There may also be thunder snow in the severe updraft zone with this system.

We’re still 60 to 72 hours from the evolution of this storm across southern Minnesota. So forecast models storm tracks will likely change between now and Sunday.

Keep in mind that any snowfall forecast you see through Friday will likely change if the storm track shifts even 40 miles.

Thursday’s forecast models all favor placing the heaviest snow zone south of the Twin Cities to around the Interstate 90 corridor. 

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model paints a relatively narrow zone for the heaviest (possibly prolific) snowfall rates. Here’s the European model output between noon Saturday and 6 p.m. Sunday:

It should be noted that the Canadian model and NOAA’s Global Forecast System model suggest a wider, heavy snow zone that includes at least the southern Twin Cities.

I’ll post this European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model 10:1 ratio snowfall output as a staring point. Right now I’m thinking there will likely be a sharp snowfall gradient from north to south across the Twin Cities. 

My early read if the European model forecast track holds is we could see as little as 4 inches in the north to potentially double-digit snowfall in the southern Twin Cities by Sunday night. Obviously those numbers will be higher if the storm comes north, and lower if it shifts south.

The best travel window on the roads in southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities will be between Friday evening and about late afternoon Saturday. After that all bets are off Saturday night through Sunday in the south.

The heaviest snow will fall between midnight and about 3 p.m. Sunday especially south of the Twin Cities. Sunday looks like a good day to binge your favorite series and peek out the window to check snow totals.

Next week starts cold and wintry with more snow possible. Forecast models suggest a significant warmup late next week.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Two powerful March storms bring high winds and heavy snow to different parts of Minnesota through Sunday.

High wind and blizzard warnings north into Friday; prolific snowfall totals possible south Sunday

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