Winter storm warnings continue in northern Minnesota 

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We’re about 24 hours away from the onset of what looks like the worst wintry storm of the year for parts of Minnesota. This powerful storm will bring high winds, ice, and heavy snowfall to parts of central Minnesota likely including the Twin Cities are into Wisconsin.

Let’s break down the storm into the most impactful pieces as we look ahead into the upcoming weekend.

Let’s start with the good news before the storm hits. 

Travel conditions will be good Friday evening through at least early afternoon Saturday for the Twin Cities and much of the region. Your best option this week weekend is to get errands done before noon or 3 p.m. Saturday. 

All bets are off by Saturday evening and especially Sunday across central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities area.

 heads for Minnesota Saturday and Sunday. 

This potent system features high end dynamics that will create strong updrafts in the heavy snow zone. That may produce thunder snow with snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour at the system’s peak Sunday morning.

There are varying forecast models solutions, as usual. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NAM 3 km model on the map below seems to blend many features of other forecast models.

Snow begins in a sliver of western Minnesota Saturday morning and spreads east toward the Twin Cities Saturday afternoon. 

The heaviest snowfall is likely between late Saturday night through midday Sunday. The forecast model loop below runs between noon Saturday and 6 p.m. Sunday. Note the pink shades showing mixed ice on the southern end of the snow zone.

Winter storm warnings cover most of central and southern Minnesota into Wisconsin. 

Check out the extreme wording from the Twin Cities National Weather Service office on this powerful storm:

Here’s the warning text for the greater Twin Cities area from Twin Cities NWS office:

Blizzard warnings are up for a few counties in western Minnesota and eastern South Dakota that include the cities of Ortonville, Britton, Wheaton, Webster, and Sisseton 

It’s possible we’ll see additional blizzard warnings issued for Sunday as high winds greater than 40 mph and heavy snow reduce visibility and make travel nearly impossible in some areas.

Forecast models suggest a warmer layer of air on the south side of the system will mix in some sleet and snow pellets. This is most likely south of the Twin Cities into the southern metro. 

Areas that get a few hours of ice will see reduced snowfall totals. NOAA’s NAM model snowfall output shows this trend from the southern Twin Cities southward:

As usual, there are huge differences in eventual snowfall totals between various forecast models. There are some atmospheric reasons for this with this particular storm. 

Ice mixing in to the south in spring storms can kill large dendrite formation reducing snowfall totals. This system will likely produce a relatively narrow band of the heaviest snowfall inside a wider band of less intense snow.

The most likely outcome for this system is a wide zone of between 5 and 10 inches of snow to the north and south of the heaviest 10 inch plus snowfall bands in the middle. So places from Brainerd to north of St. Cloud could fall in this lesser but still significant snow band. 

The same goes for areas generally south of the Twin Cities. Here’s the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model (10:1 ratio) snowfall output:

The forecast models have been shifting the heaviest snow zone gradually north the past couple of days. 

As of Friday afternoon, the most consensus centers around a narrower band of extreme snowfall (50 miles wide?) from east to west across central Minnesota, favoring the northern half of the Twin Cities northward. 

This Canadian model (Kuchera) output is on the higher end of storm snowfall solutions:

Obviously, a 30-mile shift will change things. But the best read on the potential for this system suggest a zone of double digit snowfall between 10 and 18 inches in that zone. 

If the storm delivers max potential then local snowfall totals could reach 20 inches in parts of eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin where the storm will be stronger.

We still have forecast model runs overnight Friday night into Saturday morning before the snow zone sets up, so there still could be changes in that heaviest snow zone. 

The main message is travel looks nearly impossible late Saturday night through Sunday.

 and buckle up for what could be the biggest storm of the season for parts of Minnesota and possibly parts of the Twin Cities!

Weather and Climate News

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A powerful winter storm brings wind, heavy snow, and ice mixed in late Saturday through Sunday. A narrow band of super heavy snow could drop double digit snowfall totals.

Sunday snow blitz: Wide snowfall range, dangerous travel conditions likely across Minnesota

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