Hydrologic cycle in action this week: Mostly melty and partly foggy
Snowmelt moisture will produce morning fog. Here's why that will determine temperatures over the next few days.
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The hydrologic cycle.
Most of us learned about it in 8th grade science class. Now we’re about to see it work firsthand in Minnesota the next few days.
Our ample snow cover in Minnesota is on the melt. A record-warm air mass across the West will drive temperatures above 100 degrees in the southwest this week. Minnesota rides the extreme northeast edge of milder air to the southwest.
As temperatures warm this week, we’re going to melt snow rapidly. That snowmelt puts additional moisture into the lower atmosphere during the day. If winds are light, it just hangs around at night as temperatures cool to the dew point. That’s when saturation occurs and we develop radiation fog.
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The fog could be thick in many places the next few mornings.
Our stronger March sun is usually able to burn off the fog most mornings into midday. If that happens on schedule, temperatures will soar in the afternoons as the milder air flow increases this week. If we get enough sun, we’ll see 40s and 50s in the south on Thursday afternoon.
Friday looks even warmer if the fog burns off again. But if the fog isn’t able to burn off and low clouds persist, we will be cooler on those days.
Warmest day in four months Saturday?
The biggest forecast challenge the next few days could be Saturday.
The mildest wedge of our inbound air mass arrives Saturday. If we lose the fog and get plenty of sun before noon, temperatures will soar. And we should have melted enough snow by then that bare ground will further increase heating ability of the sun’s rays.
Most forecast models deliver highs in the 70s in southwestern Minnesota Saturday. If we get the sun, we should hit the 60s in the Twin Cities and much of central Minnesota.
If we hit 61 degrees Saturday in the Twin Cities, it will be the warmest day in four months since we hit 61 on Nov. 15!
Sunday looks a little cooler, with highs closer to 50 degrees in the south.
Enjoy the melt!
