Cooler but still well above normal this week

MPR News helps you turn down the noise and build shared understanding. Turn up your support for this public resource and keep trusted journalism accessible to all. 

Turn Up Your Support

Rural Minnesota populations were shrinking for decades. But with more people migrating to those counties, that trend is reversing, for now.

The Center for Rural Policy and Development produces a report every year analyzing demographics and economies in rural Minnesota. In its 

 it highlighted two trends pulling rural populations in different directions: migration and aging. 

“Since the ‘70s, it's been a fairly steady outward migration from the rural counties and inward migration in the metro area,” said Marnie Werner, the vice president of research at the center. “But now we've been seeing a modest reverse of that.”

Werner, who worked on the report, said that population growth from migration is making up for negative net natural population change, which means there are more deaths than births. 

“If you look at the birth rates, just from year to year, they have dropped quite a bit … from the mid 2010s to now, it's a very distinct downward trend,” she said. “If you pair that with the increasing death rates because of the large aging population we have, then that really sets us up for a large negative natural change.”

The report states that the net increases in population likely won’t last long because the natural change in population will only worsen as the Baby Boomer generation continues to age.

“They're getting older and older. They're a large population group, and so that is going to basically put a lot of pressure on any kind of in-migration as they die off,” she said. “It's really going to put pressure on the workforce in Greater Minnesota, as you have retirees moving into Greater Minnesota or those older workers just passing away and fewer younger people left behind fill those jobs.”

Job vacancies are highest in Greater Minnesota, according to the report. That can increase wages as companies seek to attract workers. 

“The Twin Cities still has the highest median wages for job vacancies,” Werner said. “But greater Minnesota — the wages there have really grown, and they're definitely much closer to Metro-area levels than they have been in a long time, if ever.”

Migration to rural Minnesota has coincided with increased diversity there. Werner said it will take a while for data to show whether immigration enforcement throughout the state this year had an impact on migration.

Minnesota News

Greater Minnesota

NewsPartners

Homepage

Harshawn Ratanpal

Host

A new report from The Center for Rural Policy and Development finds that while populations are growing in rural Minnesota because of migration, aging populations mean that new trend might not last very long.

Rural Minnesota populations are growing, for now

Go Deeper.

Like this?

News you can use in your inbox