Cooler but still well above normal this week

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Get ready for a bad weather April Fool’s joke, Minnesota. Except this one may look and feel all too real starting Wednesday and heading into the upcoming first weekend of April. 

Two messy weather systems are swerving toward Minnesota this week. They look quite capable of dumping several inches of slushy snow across much of Minnesota. Depending on where the rain-snow line eventually sets up, we could be shoveling in the Twin Cities.

I hope you enjoyed our spring and summerlike temperatures in southern Minnesota Monday. 

Let’s break down the seemingly non-identical-twin weather systems heading for Minnesota this week.

Our first weather maker this week could bring some light snow and mixed precipitation as early as Tuesday. 

Winter weather advisories for ice and light snow

 are up for most of northern Minnesota Tuesday. Here’s the National Weather Service:

The best chance for frozen precipitation is north of the Twin Cities, but I can’t rule out a little mixed precipitation reaching the metro area early Tuesday. Scattered rain showers are possible Tuesday afternoon.

But the main body of the system arrives Wednesday into Thursday. 

The European and Canadian models favor solutions that keep the rain snow line mostly near or just north of the Twin Cities through most of the system. That would mean rain and possibly ice mixing in around the metro region with the higher system snowfall totals to the north across central and northern Minnesota.

Here’s the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model output between 1 p.m. Wednesday and 7 p.m. Thursday:

Here’s an early look at European model snowfall trends for system No. 1. This can and will likely change.

The American models are farther south with the rain-snow line, and that would bring more snow into the greater Twin Cities. It should be noted that the recent trend has been farther south with systems than models have shown leading into the last 24 hours.

The second weather system rides in on the heels of our first. Early indications are this system could track slightly farther north. If so, that would mean more rain to start in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. 

A change to snow and windy cold Saturday night into Easter morning looks likely behind the system. Here’s the Canadian model between 7 a.m. Friday and 7 a.m. Sunday:

The potential for heavier snow with these two systems right now seems to strongly favor central and northern Minnesota through Saturday. There are many forecast questions regarding precipitation types around the Twin Cities, with southern Minnesota favoring mostly rain. 

There is the potential for sloppy, shovelable snow around the Twin Cities with both systems.

I’m glad I kept the snow stakes in the Weather Lab driveway.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Monday felt like summer in the south. But wintry weather is not done with Minnesota just yet.

Keep the shovels handy: Two rain-snow systems ahead this week

Go Deeper.

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