Cooler but still well above normal this week

MPR News helps you turn down the noise and build shared understanding. Turn up your support for this public resource and keep trusted journalism accessible to all. 

Turn Up Your Support

One of the messiest storms of the season is about to plow into Minnesota. Our inbound weather system brings a rainy, icy, sleety, snowy mix to different parts of Minnesota Wednesday night through Thursday.

 are posted for areas in and around the Twin Cities and 

Here’s the language in the Twin Cities area winter storm warning.

Let’s break down storm timing, coverage, and precipitation types. Then look ahead to the second system rolling in Friday and Saturday.

System No. 1 Wednesday night and Thursday

 tracking through Iowa Thursday. I’m a little leery of track and precipitation type forecast accuracy with these systems lately as they pass right through the zone with fewer weather balloon launches from Colorado through Nebraska and South Dakota.

Most forecast models have similar solutions featuring mainly snow in the northern half of Minnesota with a rainy icy mix south. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model shows the rain, ice and snow zones increasing in coverage overnight into Thursday. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 p.m. Wednesday and 1 a.m. Friday.

Southern Minnesota will see a mix from rain south to icy precipitation around the Twin Cities area. The ice and sleet could get heavy overnight into early Thursday.

Some areas could see up to an inch of sleet accumulation, and it could be pinging off your windshield during your Thursday morning commute. 

Glaze ice is also likely from the Twin Cities east into central Wisconsin where ice storm warnings are up.

Thursday’s morning commute looks like the most impactful time. With temperatures right around 32 degrees a variety of precipitation types may fall. 

It should be warm enough for mostly rain by Thursday afternoon from the Twin Cities south.

To the north, it will be mostly wet, heavy sloppy snow. The heaviest snow zone favors the North Shore where 5 to more than 10 inches is likely. (See the map at the top of the post.) There will be less snow as you move farther south.

The second system appears to track slightly farther north. That could mean more rain for the Twin Cities with another shot of heavy wet snow north.

The Canadian model seem reasonable as a solution at this point. The forecast model loop below runs between 1 p.m. Friday and 1 a.m. Sunday.

Overall snowfall again favors northern Minnesota. 

On the map below, this Canadian model (Kuchera) snowfall output for both systems runs through 7 a.m. Sunday. I think the potential for more than a foot of heavy wet snow is possible across the north and especially the North Shore regions by Sunday.

There are signs we may warm up into the 50s and 60s south again by next Wednesday.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Homepage

Paul Huttner

Author

A messy winter storm brings glaze ice, sleet, and snow to different parts of Minnesota through Thursday.

Winter storm warnings: Sleety, icy, snowy system through Thursday

Go Deeper.

Like this?

News you can use in your inbox