Heat dome develops soon, hottest feel of year

Minnesota will be divided into two big weather worlds Wednesday. Northern Minnesota will see light showers, overcast, skies and cooler temperatures with severe weather and hail possible along the North Shore. There will be warm, dry conditions and sun to the south.

Much hotter temperatures start Sunday into Monday. We should have widespread highs in the mid-90s with heat indices into the 100s.

Sunshine, dry conditions into Saturday

Scattered storms have developed in parts of northeastern Minnesota. The Duluth National Weather Service office expects period of heavy rain while northwestern Wisconsin may see strong to severe storms that may produce large hail.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday are somewhat in-between days, where we’ll have lots of sunshine and mostly dry conditions but temperatures will still be a little below average.

Potentially dangerous heat next week

The main story of the coming week will be much hotter temperatures starting on Sunday and primarily into Monday. We should have widespread highs in the middle 90s with heat indices into the 100s.

The wet-bulb globe temperatures are something that sports teams, the military and meteorologists are using to explain or predict heat risk. It’s becoming increasingly more common, although the heat index is likely much more used.

For real hard outdoor work, though, the wet-bulb globe temperature will be at dangerous levels early next week.

Sunday into early Monday is our next best chance for a soaking rain, coupled with some thunderstorms.

The rains show up on long-range mapping from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model and from Environment Canada, but not really on other charts.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts morning model run shows huge storms next Monday along with the heat. The storms are still iffy, but the heat dome looks increasingly likely. That could push storms into Saskatchewan and Manitoba instead of Minnesota.

The El Niño weather pattern is here, although Minnesota typically has muffled El Niño conditions in the summer, especially when compared with the winter. That’s the case this time around, as the intensity is weaker when placed next to its likely strength this coming winter.

On Thursday, we’ll get a new drought conditions map for Minnesota. We’ll be looking at the far southwestern corner of the state — where there’s been a swath of extreme drought — as well as conditions in north-central Minnesota.

If you were to dive deep into the drought data you’d also see that deep soil moisture is really lacking in parts of central Minnesota. The deep soil moisture is in the worst category of drought, even if the surface water is in decent shape.