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Minnesota is a big place, and the state will be divided into two big weather worlds on Wednesday. In northern Minnesota, we will have some light showers, overcast, skies, and cooler temperatures. Even some severe weather and hail are possible along the North Shore of Superior, not far from Duluth. That’s from an upper low that has been spinning around the Great Lakes like a top. In southern Minnesota, we will have a touch more warmth and mainly dry condition conditions, with better sunshine overall. As I type this, the sun is clearing out in real time from our St. Paul offices.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday are somewhat in between days, where we’ll have lots of sunshine and mostly dry conditions, but temperatures are still below average by a little bit. Then the main story of the coming week is here, much hotter temperatures starting on Sunday and primarily into Monday. We should have widespread highs in the middle 90s with heat indices into the 100s. 

The wet bulb globe temperatures are something that sports teams, the military, and meteorologists are using to explain or predict heat risk. It’s becoming increasingly more common but the ‘heat index’ is likely much more used. Point is, for real hard outdoor work, the WBGT will be at dangerous levels early next week. 

I feel like I’ve been writing about the inbound rain for the tail end of the weekend going back a few weeks now, and there are some rain showers. Generally, speaking, though, these trend has been to delay the rain and delay the rain and delay the rain. Sunday into early Monday is our next best chance for a soaking rain, coupled with some thunderstorm thunderstorms.

The rains show up on the American GFS an the Canadian long-range mapping, but not really on other charts. Meanwhile, the European morning model run has huge storms next Monday, along with the heat. The storms are still iffy, but the heat dome looks more and more likely. That could push storms up into Saskatchewan and Manitoba instead of Minnesota. 

You’ve probably heard, seen videos regarding, or read about the incoming El Niño teleconnection pattern. And yes, the pattern is here, but Minnesota typically has muffled El Niño conditions in the summer, especially when compared with the winter. That’s the case this time around, as the intensity is weaker when placed next to its likely strength this coming winter. Still, we are about to have a decent pattern swap; that’s if you believe the longer range models, which I think are fun to look at, but don’t exactly have the best track record. The weeklies are turning drier here shortly and at least a little bit hotter, after the next heat wave.

Plus, we’re just a few hours away from the new drought monitor. Will be watching for what happens in the far south corner of the state, plus near the arrowhead and points to the west of that. And if you were to dive deep into the drought data you’d also see that deep soil moisture is really lacking in parts of Central Minnesota. In fact, the deep soil moisture is it the worst category of drought, even if the surface water is in decent shape.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Ben Cathey

Author

Minnesota is a big place, and the state will be divided into two big weather worlds on Wednesday. In northern Minnesota, we will have some light showers, overcast, skies, and cooler temperatures. Even some severe weather and hail are possible along the North Shore of Superior, not far from Duluth. That’s from an upper low. That has been spinning around the Great Lakes like a top. In southern Minnesota, we will have a touch more warmth and mainly dry condition conditions, with better sunshine overall.

Heat dome develops soon, hottest feel of year

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