In Rochester, a legislative race that could make or break party control at the Capitol

On a warm fall evening, Simon Glaser was going door-to-door in Rochester. He’s a first-time DFL candidate running for state Senate, and wanted to talk to voters who could be persuaded to vote for Democrats even if they voted for Republicans in the past.

Glaser, who is a high school English teacher, landed at Dave Atwood’s door, and explained why he’s running for office.

“I work with a lot of younger teachers who are just having a tougher time than I did 30 years ago, and I just feel like as a country we used to do a better job looking out for people that work for a living,” he said. “And that’s what I’d like to do in St. Paul.”

Glaser is running against former Republican state representative Nels Pierson, who has strong name recognition in the area after serving eight years at the Capitol.

They’re vying to replace longtime state Sen. Carla Nelson, R-Rochester.

It’s an open seat that Democrats want to flip after more than a decade of GOP representation, and one that could make or break power for either party at the Capitol, with both chambers closely divided.

Since Nelson won her seat in the Senate, Rochester, which was once reliably red, has become markedly bluer in recent years as the city grows under Mayo Clinic’s expansion.

Democrats are banking on enough Republicans being frustrated with the unpopular agenda of the Trump administration.

But just outside city limits, the district gets very red, making it a race where Republicans are also focusing their resources. Pierson said in his experience, voters here value pragmatism over partisanship as a result.

“Rochester recognizes that type of independence, and I think that that's an important component of whomever is going to represent this district: To not bow to or listen to what the party leaders tell them they should be doing,” he said.

An increasingly expensive race

So far, about $106,000 has been spent on mailers and ads, although the pace of advertising is growing and might not be documented in early spending reports.

Sen. Nick Frentz, DFL-North Mankato, is behind the scenes strategizing to elect Democrats to the Legislature. He said Rochester is among the races the party is spending money on.

But Glaser’s success might come down to increasing turnout in liberal Rochester.

“That seat has some very blue parts to it, Rochester proper, but it also has rural, where our candidates on the DFL side have to go and make the case that they’re a better choice, and how the ultimate total comes out for Simon will depend on both halves,” he said.

Nelson said that political diversity is a good thing for politics and policy.

“I wish more districts were diverse like that. I think you end up with better representation,” she said. ”I think you end up with better outcomes when people are not playing to the extremes because the parties, I think, in many ways, have gotten very extreme."

Nelson said Pierson has the experience to straddle both worlds. In addition to his strong name recognition inside and outside of the city, Pierson’s current work in real estate and his upbringing on a dairy farm make him relatable to voters across the district, she said.

If reelected, Pierson said a top priority at the Capitol is rooting out fraud in state-run food, housing and autism programs, which Republicans pin on Gov. Tim Walz’s administration.

“Seven out of 10 people are talking about fraud at the door,” he said. “The people who are frustrated recognize that people in state government who are getting a salary to verify that these programs are going to the people who they're supposed to be going to, and no one's been held accountable for that.”

A handful of people in state government did get pushed out of jobs.

But Pierson said the issue is motivating voters.

“I believe that voters will turn to the next group, which would be Democrat lawmakers, and say, ‘You need to be held accountable today,’” he said.

Affordability on voters minds

On the campaign trail, Glaser said he hears about fraud a lot as well, and supports policies to prevent it from happening again.

But he also hears a lot about how unaffordable life is, and he wants to work to make everyday costs lower for people — like housing.

“One of the biggest drivers of cost is housing, and we have a housing shortage here. That’s frustrating for homeowners who are seeing their property taxes being the highest in the state, and it's really frustrating for renters,” he said.

It’s a message that Glaser said is resonating with voters in blue Rochester and its red surroundings, and he’s hoping it will be persuasive to Republican voters.

Rochester resident Dave Atwood told Glaser he’s already got his vote, even though he long supported Republicans.

“I used to be very, very hardcore Republican,” he said. “And then since January 6, I mean that was basically the last straw for me. Congress didn't stand up. Checks and balances are completely gone."

Atwood said he doesn't think he'll ever vote for a Republican again — even in local races.

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