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COVID in Minnesota TODAY

An archive of the COVID in Minnesota newsletter: weekly analysis on the latest developments in Minnesota’s COVID-19 outbreak from MPR News data reporter David Montgomery. Find our latest coverage on the pandemic here.

Cases are definitely rising among children — but how significantly?

Minnesota students have been back in school for more than two weeks, and we're already starting to see significant numbers of new infections among students and staff. But it's unclear how much these school outbreaks are driving cases statewide. The data is sending mixed signals here, but there's definitely not a picture of statewide uncontrolled spread. (So far?)

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Case growth continues to slow, but school reopening nears

Last week I said I was becoming more wrong and less optimistic with every day that passed without the COVID-19 peak I predicted would happen on Aug. 18. I am still becoming more wrong by the day. As for my optimism? It's still there — at least in the short term.

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Minnesota's COVID-19 outbreak stands upon the edge of a knife

My projected peak has not yet come, and with each passing day I become both more wrong and less optimistic. Minnesota's current COVID-19 wave right now stands upon the edge of a knife. Some metrics suggest that we're due for a peak sometime soon. Other factors are sending more concerning signals, especially in conjunction with external events that could spur transmission.

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Minnesota hasn't peaked yet, but probably will soon

Yesterday was Aug. 18, the day that last time I predicted Minnesota's COVID-19 wave would peak. I also promised that I'd update you on how that prediction turned out. The bad news is that Minnesota has not, in fact, peaked. The good news is that it looks like we're still on track to peak, and that it'll probably happen soon.

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My prediction for when Minnesota's COVID wave will peak

Cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all rising unabated in Minnesota. Their actual levels still aren't that bad compared to past waves and what other places have experienced. But we don't know whether our fourth wave will stay mild, or whether it will accelerate to be more like other places.

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Meet Minnesota's fourth wave. How does it compare?

Minnesota's increase in cases over the past three weeks has been sustained and significant enough that I think we can say what we're seeing is probably Minnesota's fourth wave.

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Cases are on the rise again in Minnesota. Here's what it means

The steady stream of good news about Minnesota's COVID-19 outbreak we've had for the past month may have petered to a halt. Case counts have at the very least stopped falling, and may have begun a delta variant-fueled rise.

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