Huttner: More mild temperatures in store

CATHY WURZER: Well, that wind has finally died down. Good thing. The weather is actually looking pretty nice today. We're crossing our fingers for more good news from our Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner who joins us right now. Hey, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Cathy. Let's talk about some good weather for a change, shall we?

CATHY WURZER: That'd be nice. OK. So warmer and sunnier?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it is mostly sunny across most of Minnesota right now. There's a few clouds up North Iron Range, parts of Northern Minnesota, 50s there. But mostly 60s across Minnesota now. We've already snuck up to 63 today in the Twin Cities. It's 70 in Fargo-Moorhead right now, and we'll do this again tomorrow. Still light winds, lots of sunshine, a few clouds North. I think we'll be in the 70s tomorrow in the Twin Cities.

Most of Western Minnesota, Central Minnesota in the 70s again tomorrow, so a couple of really glorious days. Get out there and enjoy. Then we cool off a little bit. But by cool off, now I'm talking 60s, so not where we were a week or two ago. And some scattered showers, especially Friday evening through about Saturday. And then maybe returning to sunshine later Sunday, a shot at 70 again Sunday afternoon, and maybe into early next week.

So our weather has shifted. We've taken a step forward, Cathy. The models saying maybe we'll get a 1/4 to a half an inch of rain this weekend at Twin Cities, maybe an inch in Western, West Central Minnesota, but certainly better than where we were, and no threat for anything like a snow or anything like that.

CATHY WURZER: So we're going to talk to a guest at the end of the hour here about gardening. Is it safe to plant yet?

PAUL HUTTNER: I think it is for the Twin Cities and Southern Minnesota. We had 38 this morning at Twin Cities Airport. That will probably be the coldest temperature for spring going forward. And the reason I say that is because looking at the models the next two weeks-- and I just double checked this-- it looks like we're above 40 in the Twin Cities and Southern Minnesota the next 16 days.

So that puts us well into mid-May. And historically, there's a 90% chance that our last 32 at Twin Cities Airport-- 32 degree temperature-- is done by May 10th, so it's likely safely to plant in the Twin Cities and Southern Minnesota. Of course, as you and I know, Cathy, we can still see frost up North well into June, so I'm not talking about maybe Central Northern Minnesota. But Twin Cities, I would say, yeah. We're getting into that 90% plus range that we won't have another freeze.

CATHY WURZER: OK. Yay for us. All right.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yay. Exactly.

CATHY WURZER: Can I ask-- I'm a little confused by this. Now, we were talking about this last week. How quickly do we go from La Nina to El Nino in the Pacific, and what does that mean for Minnesota?

PAUL HUTTNER: Well, we're going quickly this year, it looks like. Now, we've talked about this before. This was our third La Nina winter in the world. But the effects here in Minnesota, which tend to be colder and snowier-- we've had a bunch of these La Nina winters in the last 10 years, too. One of the reasons perhaps we've had our cold kind of snowy springs-- that, and a funky thing called arctic amplification that can make our springs colder here in the upper Midwest.

But to your point, it looks like the Pacific Ocean is warming rapidly. Tropical sea surface temperatures-- that's what the forecasters look at along the equator in the tropical Pacific. So we've gone from La Nina to an El Nino watch for this upcoming summer and fall.

They're saying there's about an 88% chance will be in an El Nino-- that's warm waters in the Pacific-- by this winter, and that's a 70% to 80% chance of a milder than average winter in Minnesota during the winter months. So in theory, we should have a milder than average winter next year, Cathy. If this El Nino kicks in as it looks like it will.

CATHY WURZER: On another subject here while I have you, global CO2 readings reached another record level this spring. And this is from the Mauna Loa Observatory?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. There's a couple of different sensors. There there's a Scripps Oceanography Center-- it's called the Keeling Curve-- that was put in International Geophysical Year back in '57-'58. There's also a NOAA monitor there, 425 parts per million. It actually ticked up to 430 briefly this spring, and that is a record level of global CO2. And they can go back not only to the '50s, but ice cores go back 800,000 years.

Other sediments, tree ring data-- maybe at 3 million. This is probably the highest level in about 3 million years globally, and it's increasing about three parts per million per year. Now, that doesn't sound like a lot, but we've already increased 40% from about 275 parts per million in the pre-industrial times to where we are today at 425.

And if you just take this forward another 90 parts per million in 30 years, that's up to 515. Bottom line is CO2 is increasing rapidly. And yeah, we set a new record. By the way, it peaks in the spring, Cathy, and then when the northern hemisphere leafs out, it starts to drop cyclically as the trees kind of suck in some of that carbon dioxide in the summer.

CATHY WURZER: Hey, before you go, what's on Climate Cast?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. A major expansion, of course, in wind and solar power. We know that. But that means additional grid infrastructure is needed, and legislatures in Minnesota and other states are really deciding who has the first rights to build these power lines and substations because there's a lot of cost. There's a lot of profit there as well. So we'll talk about that right of first refusal and how that grid gets built going forward. That's tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.

CATHY WURZER: All right, my friend. I hope you have a good day today. Enjoy the nice weather.

PAUL HUTTNER: You too. Thank you, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: That's our Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. By the way, if you're looking for more weather information, check out the "Updraft" blog. You can find that at mprnews.org