After cloudy start to the week, expect a return to summery temperatures
Sunshine returns to the Weather Lab.
Paul Huttner | MPR News
Wednesday brought sunshine to parts of the region after a few days of clouds and a dose of rainfall. While it is officially fall, temperatures could soon take a turn to something more like summer.
MPR News Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner joined MPR News host Cathy Wurzer to break down the week’s forecast.
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Audio transcript
CATHY WURZER: There appears to be, as I mentioned, some sunshine in parts of the region. That's after a few days of clouds and a good dose of rainfall these past few days. It is officially fall, but things could be taking a turn to more summer like temperatures. To break it all down is MPR News chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner. Hey, how are you doing?
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, I'm good. And I can confirm, I just saw some peeks of sunshine here on my desk near the window in the weather lab.
CATHY WURZER: And it was just a surprise, wasn't it? It's like, wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. It's a pretty good cloud deck across Minnesota. But there's a few holes opening up. So we might see a couple of glimpses of sun today, but we'll stay cloudy for most of the day.
CATHY WURZER: Nice. All right, let's talk about this heavy rain that we've received over the past few days. Did it ease the drought, do you think?
PAUL HUTTNER: I think it did. Rain therapy. I know I was just standing watching it this weekend loving it. And for once, I'm looking forward to the drought monitor update tomorrow, Cathy. Here's the thing. I'm looking at these maps and the way they lay out. The rainfall map from last weekend right next to the drought monitor map that we had last week with that area of extreme drought down the Mississippi River right through much of the Twin Cities.
And that area of heavy rain, that four to even seven inches of rain if you go from north of Mankato up through the Western Twin Cities, Northern Twin Cities, and then up I-35 to the Hinckley area, up to Duluth and Two Harbors. A French river got seven inches of rain, Cathy. We average about three inches of rain during September in the Twin Cities. So a lot of places got almost two months' worth of rainfall last weekend.
It should be enough in those areas to bump the drought monitor tomorrow back at least one category, I think. Maybe some spots, too. They also had a good three to five inches of rain up around Detroit Lakes Fergus Falls. And that area is not in as severe a drought. So that might even help more.
Cathy, those rainfall deficits. We were running eight to 10 inches this year in parts of the Twin Cities, Eastern Minnesota. We made up about half of that in many places. And of course, drought is a funny thing, because sometimes the rain comes down too fast for soils. It runs off. But I can tell you, some of the pons in the area where I live in the Southwestern Twin Cities were brim full. And they were dry before this last rain.
Lake Minnetonka went up about four inches. That's good, but it was down almost two feet. So the bigger watersheds might take more time to recover. The good news is I do think we're going to see a category at least improvement in the drought monitor tomorrow.
CATHY WURZER: That is really, really good news. Well, I mentioned the summerish temperatures this weekend. I, for one, excited about it. But I know it's fall, so other people are looking for the crisper weather. How warm is it going to get? And I'm asking this specifically for some of the runners in the Twin Cities Marathon on Sunday.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. And this could be one of the warmest TC marathons on record. 25,000 runners, right. Here's the thing. We're only going to have a low temperature of about 67 or so Sunday morning. And our high in the afternoon will be 85. The record's 87, Cathy. So we're close to records this weekend.
It's going to be I think around 80 by lunchtime, by noontime. And the dew points are going to be in the low 60s. Now that's unusually high for October. We typically would get 40s to low 50s for dew points. So the runners are really going to feel that this year. I know they've had some other warm years. It was in the 70s in 2007. But yes, this is going to be one of, if not the warmest and most humid Twin Cities marathons on record.
For the rest of us who aren't running 26 miles, and I know that's me, just very warm once again, with near record highs. So we're low 70s today in the Twin Cities. Lots of 60s around Minnesota. Tomorrow, the sun will return after maybe a foggy cloudy start, 74. And then 80 on Friday, it looks like. An 83 to 85 this weekend. Cathy, I could see 90 again in Southwest Minnesota on Monday. This warmth looks persistent.
CATHY WURZER: Well, that's unusual. That doesn't feel right, I have to say. For this time of the year, obviously. So what about that fall outlook?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, and I'm watching the jet stream patterns. And we still have the primary polar front jet stream that's way up into Canada. And it looks like it'll stay there for the next probably couple of weeks. Temperatures 10 to 20 degrees. Warmer than average for the first week of October. Maybe not even seeing a change until mid-October. Now our average high, Sunday, October 1st-- 66.
And the outlooks from NOAA have a warm bias favoring warmer and actually wetter than average conditions through the middle part of October. Cathy, the models are saying maybe another one to two inches of rain late next week. So fingers crossed there. We may even improve on this drought a little bit more in the next week or two.
CATHY WURZER: OK. And what about Climate Cast?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, tomorrow, the other greenhouse gas. It's water vapor, right. We hear a lot about CO2. But Kevin Trenberth with the National Center for Atmospheric Research wrote a very interesting paper about the effects of water vapor. Because as we warm, the atmosphere holds more water vapor, as we know. And it can be as potent greenhouse gas when it comes to warming as carbon dioxide.
So we'll talk to John Abraham, who's a professor with the University of Saint Thomas in Saint Paul. That's tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.
CATHY WURZER: Oh, I had no idea about that. Can you just briefly just give me an idea of why that is such an important climate driver? Is it because of the rain? In terms of the moisture in the air.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, so when the atmosphere warms, the capacity for holding water vapor increases. And water vapor also retains heat. So it makes things cool off more slowly. So it's actually as effective as carbon dioxide, in many cases. And it also, Cathy, is one of those things that helps wring out these heavier rainfalls that we get. And of course, we've seen that in the Twin Cities now where it's drought, drought, drought. And then we get four or five, six, seven inches of rain.
CATHY WURZER: All right. Thank you for the explainer. I appreciate it. I hope you have a good rest of the day.
PAUL HUTTNER: You, too. Thanks, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: That's Paul Huttner. He's our chief meteorologist. You can hear him and Tom Crann Monday through Fridays on All Things Considered. That's coming up later this afternoon. 3:00 until 6:00, right here on MPR News.
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, I'm good. And I can confirm, I just saw some peeks of sunshine here on my desk near the window in the weather lab.
CATHY WURZER: And it was just a surprise, wasn't it? It's like, wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. It's a pretty good cloud deck across Minnesota. But there's a few holes opening up. So we might see a couple of glimpses of sun today, but we'll stay cloudy for most of the day.
CATHY WURZER: Nice. All right, let's talk about this heavy rain that we've received over the past few days. Did it ease the drought, do you think?
PAUL HUTTNER: I think it did. Rain therapy. I know I was just standing watching it this weekend loving it. And for once, I'm looking forward to the drought monitor update tomorrow, Cathy. Here's the thing. I'm looking at these maps and the way they lay out. The rainfall map from last weekend right next to the drought monitor map that we had last week with that area of extreme drought down the Mississippi River right through much of the Twin Cities.
And that area of heavy rain, that four to even seven inches of rain if you go from north of Mankato up through the Western Twin Cities, Northern Twin Cities, and then up I-35 to the Hinckley area, up to Duluth and Two Harbors. A French river got seven inches of rain, Cathy. We average about three inches of rain during September in the Twin Cities. So a lot of places got almost two months' worth of rainfall last weekend.
It should be enough in those areas to bump the drought monitor tomorrow back at least one category, I think. Maybe some spots, too. They also had a good three to five inches of rain up around Detroit Lakes Fergus Falls. And that area is not in as severe a drought. So that might even help more.
Cathy, those rainfall deficits. We were running eight to 10 inches this year in parts of the Twin Cities, Eastern Minnesota. We made up about half of that in many places. And of course, drought is a funny thing, because sometimes the rain comes down too fast for soils. It runs off. But I can tell you, some of the pons in the area where I live in the Southwestern Twin Cities were brim full. And they were dry before this last rain.
Lake Minnetonka went up about four inches. That's good, but it was down almost two feet. So the bigger watersheds might take more time to recover. The good news is I do think we're going to see a category at least improvement in the drought monitor tomorrow.
CATHY WURZER: That is really, really good news. Well, I mentioned the summerish temperatures this weekend. I, for one, excited about it. But I know it's fall, so other people are looking for the crisper weather. How warm is it going to get? And I'm asking this specifically for some of the runners in the Twin Cities Marathon on Sunday.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. And this could be one of the warmest TC marathons on record. 25,000 runners, right. Here's the thing. We're only going to have a low temperature of about 67 or so Sunday morning. And our high in the afternoon will be 85. The record's 87, Cathy. So we're close to records this weekend.
It's going to be I think around 80 by lunchtime, by noontime. And the dew points are going to be in the low 60s. Now that's unusually high for October. We typically would get 40s to low 50s for dew points. So the runners are really going to feel that this year. I know they've had some other warm years. It was in the 70s in 2007. But yes, this is going to be one of, if not the warmest and most humid Twin Cities marathons on record.
For the rest of us who aren't running 26 miles, and I know that's me, just very warm once again, with near record highs. So we're low 70s today in the Twin Cities. Lots of 60s around Minnesota. Tomorrow, the sun will return after maybe a foggy cloudy start, 74. And then 80 on Friday, it looks like. An 83 to 85 this weekend. Cathy, I could see 90 again in Southwest Minnesota on Monday. This warmth looks persistent.
CATHY WURZER: Well, that's unusual. That doesn't feel right, I have to say. For this time of the year, obviously. So what about that fall outlook?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, and I'm watching the jet stream patterns. And we still have the primary polar front jet stream that's way up into Canada. And it looks like it'll stay there for the next probably couple of weeks. Temperatures 10 to 20 degrees. Warmer than average for the first week of October. Maybe not even seeing a change until mid-October. Now our average high, Sunday, October 1st-- 66.
And the outlooks from NOAA have a warm bias favoring warmer and actually wetter than average conditions through the middle part of October. Cathy, the models are saying maybe another one to two inches of rain late next week. So fingers crossed there. We may even improve on this drought a little bit more in the next week or two.
CATHY WURZER: OK. And what about Climate Cast?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, tomorrow, the other greenhouse gas. It's water vapor, right. We hear a lot about CO2. But Kevin Trenberth with the National Center for Atmospheric Research wrote a very interesting paper about the effects of water vapor. Because as we warm, the atmosphere holds more water vapor, as we know. And it can be as potent greenhouse gas when it comes to warming as carbon dioxide.
So we'll talk to John Abraham, who's a professor with the University of Saint Thomas in Saint Paul. That's tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.
CATHY WURZER: Oh, I had no idea about that. Can you just briefly just give me an idea of why that is such an important climate driver? Is it because of the rain? In terms of the moisture in the air.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, so when the atmosphere warms, the capacity for holding water vapor increases. And water vapor also retains heat. So it makes things cool off more slowly. So it's actually as effective as carbon dioxide, in many cases. And it also, Cathy, is one of those things that helps wring out these heavier rainfalls that we get. And of course, we've seen that in the Twin Cities now where it's drought, drought, drought. And then we get four or five, six, seven inches of rain.
CATHY WURZER: All right. Thank you for the explainer. I appreciate it. I hope you have a good rest of the day.
PAUL HUTTNER: You, too. Thanks, Cathy.
CATHY WURZER: That's Paul Huttner. He's our chief meteorologist. You can hear him and Tom Crann Monday through Fridays on All Things Considered. That's coming up later this afternoon. 3:00 until 6:00, right here on MPR News.
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