With costs ballooning, what’s the future of universal school lunch programs?

CATHY WURZER: Let's talk a little bit about what you're hearing on the campaign trail. Kamala Harris, Tim Walz have not announced plans to try to make school meals free for all US students if they're elected to the White House. But they have been talking about this. The idea has gotten a lot of attention recently because of Walz's rising national profile.

He signed a law, you may remember, back in 2023 that created a universal school meals program that is now entering its second school year. The program is popular. But it's already costing the state more money than expected. The estimated price tag is about $480 million for the first two years.

So-- wanted to get some insight on what could determine the future of school meals. For all the attention on Governor Walz, you may not know that Minnesota is not the only state to implement a program like this, nor was it the first. Seven other states have done so, all in the last three years, starting with California.

Kalyn Belsha has been following their rollout as senior national reporter for Chalkbeat. That's a nonprofit newsroom focused on education. Real pleasure, Kalyn. Thank you for joining us.

KALYN BELSHA: Thank you so much for having me.

CATHY WURZER: Can you tell us, please-- remind us how this wave of free school meals policies got started?

KALYN BELSHA: Sure. So during the pandemic, as part of some of the COVID relief, there was a law that was passed that said schools could give free school meals to all kids, regardless of income. And a lot of schools found that parents really liked this. The schools liked it. That expired a couple of years ago. And then we saw a wave of states wanting to bring that back.

There was some push to try to get it to be extended at the federal level that was unsuccessful. So then we saw the states stepping in. And as you mentioned, there are now eight states that have a policy.

CATHY WURZER: What's the experience been in other states in terms of the cost?

KALYN BELSHA: So I'd say it's been pretty similar. Across the board, we've seen that a lot of times the estimate of how many kids would take the free meal was off. A lot of states were using their pandemic best guess. And it turned out that the program was more popular. And they had more kids taking breakfast and lunch.

So it ended up costing more, partly because of that. We've also seen the rising costs of inflation. So the cost of providing the food has gone up. And in some cases, some of the programs or new taxes that were put in place to try to create revenue for these programs fell short. So there's a couple of different reasons. But in general, these programs have been over budget.

CATHY WURZER: And so has-- have there have been moves from the states to get the feds to kick in more money-- or, as you say, there are some places that have implemented taxes to try to raise money and have revenue streams for these free school meals. What's the funding mechanism that seems to be working at this point?

KALYN BELSHA: So right now, a lot of the states are just basically trying to maximize what the federal government gives to them. They get a reimbursement, depending on the income level for the kids. But because there's now universal meals in many states, families just aren't filling out the paperwork that they used to, which is good for families, good for schools. But then it can be harder to figure out how much the federal government should reimburse you for. So states right now are taking some steps. Colorado, for example, is considering hiring a consultant just to do this, to try to maximize the number of schools and school districts that have signed up for federal programs that make the reimbursement rate as high as possible.

CATHY WURZER: So where do experts see this program going, ultimately?

KALYN BELSHA: We've seen from polling that families really like this. It's still something that's really popular. So I think it's going to be on states to figure out if this is something they want to keep paying for in the long run.

There is a lot of research that shows that these kinds of programs can help boost attendance and can, in some cases, help kids do better in school. And so you could maybe look at some of those benefits and decide, is it worth the cost that it's costing for the state?

We've also heard about a reduction in stigma that because everyone eats for free, no one knows who's from a low-income family. And that can actually lead to fewer suspensions and better behavior in school. So there's just a lot of trade-offs and a lot of thinking that people have to do if they want to think about continuing these programs.

CATHY WURZER: Interesting. Thank you for the information. We appreciate it, Kalyn.

KALYN BELSHA: Thank you so much.

CATHY WURZER: Kalyn Belsha is a senior national reporter for Chalkbeat. She's based in Chicago. We're going to turn right now to a Minnesota lawmaker from Lakeville who was one of four Republicans to vote for the universal school meals bill. Senator Zach Duckworth is on the line right now. Thanks, senator. Good to hear your voice again. Thanks for taking the time.

ZACH DUCKWORTH: Well, thanks very much for having me.

CATHY WURZER: There was pretty firm Republican opposition to universal school meals in the Minnesota House last session. As I mentioned, you voted for the bill. If I recall, you had some reservations about the cost of funding meals for all students. What was the tipping point for you in this debate? What made you decide to ultimately support the bill?

ZACH DUCKWORTH: Sure. Great question. I had some of the same concerns that your other guest, Kalyn, just very eloquently laid out there and made folks aware of. Ultimately, it came down to be-- someone who has served on a school board before and was on a school board when the pandemic first presented itself as an issue that we had to grapple with and we were finding ways to feed families and students. We'd shown we had done it before. Students, families had become accustomed to it.

I've got three little kids in public schools, one more on the way, due in a couple of weeks. And so for me, it came down to, do a majority of folks feel that it's a good investment that we're making on behalf of our communities to help feed children, especially those that may be in need of it, running the risk that some that might not necessarily need it would also benefit. Ultimately, for me, that's what it came down to.

CATHY WURZER: One of your colleagues in the House, senator-- excuse me, Representative Drazkowski, ran into a buzzsaw of criticism when he said that the bill was a solution in search of a need. But what is the need out there, as you know it?

ZACH DUCKWORTH: Sure. Again, I would point to some of the information your previous guest shared in that there are a lot of federal programs that exist to try to help students and families that do have an issue providing food for their children, specifically in schools. And so we have to ensure that as a state, if we're being good stewards of taxpayer dollars, we're exhausting any federal aid or federal dollars that might be available to us first before we start tapping into Minnesota's coffers.

And I think the majority of students historically had found a way to make sure that they were either bringing school lunch or paying for school lunch throughout the school day and the school year, whereas a minority of students were faced with that challenge. And families were faced with that challenge. So really, I think what he was likely trying to say is perhaps it's not as prevalent as a problem as it's maybe being made out to be. That being said, are there still some students and families that we should be taking care of and ensure are able to have food in their bellies so they can, of course, learn in the classroom?

CATHY WURZER: As you know, it's very difficult to get rid of a new program if it's popular, right? So it's becoming clear that this program is costing the state more than projected. And it's substantially more. Does any of that, the fiscal part of this, change your calculus at all moving forward?

ZACH DUCKWORTH: Well, for me personally, no. But I can tell you with 100% certainty what's going to happen. And I think the biggest concern that came from Republican members of the legislature was the fact that our schools and our school districts and communities were going to be burdened with the cost of this program in perpetuity. Essentially, they are going to be the recipient of an unfunded mandate. We just learned that the funding provided is less than what ultimately was projected. And people sometimes don't realize how the state of Minnesota's budget works.

This program has only been funded for a couple of years. And if the state no longer continues to fund it, it's going to be school districts, their local communities, and taxpayers that are somehow going to have to figure out a way to make these numbers work. And that's coming at a time in which our school districts right now are already facing tremendous budgetary challenges due to a whole host of unfunded mandates that were imposed upon them over the last couple of years in the Minnesota state legislature.

CATHY WURZER: So are you saying, senator, that the future of universal school meals in Minnesota is unclear?

ZACH DUCKWORTH: No. I think, unfortunately, what's clear is, one way or another, our school districts are going to be saddled with this very expensive burden that they may not have planned for. And as a result, they're going to have to increase taxes at their level because the state of Minnesota did not pass any additional revenue generator.

As a matter of fact, they spent an entire $19.5 billion surplus and grew government spending by 40%. So what I predict is the state of Minnesota is not going to step in to continue to fund this program. You're going to have to see school districts continue to try to pinch pennies and find a way to continue to fund it because they're going to be very hard-pressed to try to explain to people why they're no longer able to do so.

CATHY WURZER: I see. Do you think there will be any attempt in the coming session to try to find a different funding stream at all on the state side?

ZACH DUCKWORTH: Well, I'll tell you this much. Over the last two years, taxes were increased by over $10 billion. So I don't think there is an unwillingness to look at different ways to tax Minnesotans, unfortunately. But given our current circumstances, with the rising costs of inflation, cost of living, and families struggling to find a way to make ends meet, I think raising taxes or making anything that challenges their budget even more would be very, very disappointing to the average Minnesotan out there trying to find a way to provide for their family and plan for their future.

CATHY WURZER: Senator, I appreciate your time here. Thank you so much.

ZACH DUCKWORTH: My pleasure. Thank you.

CATHY WURZER: Zach Duckworth is a Republican state senator from Lakeville.