Weekend split, season’s first 90s now in sight?

Those who scheduled that big graduation party for Sunday will be happy they did.

Call it an even split between rain and sunshine this weekend. You'll have to pick your spots, but you can find both if you are looking. We endure another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday as a cool front sweeps through this weekend.

The system brings rain into the first half of Saturday. Rainfall totals generally bracket in the .25 to .75 inch range, with some isolated 1 inch totals possible under stronger storms.

While a few of the storms may be on the strong side with some gusty winds, downpours and small hail, it looks like there just isn't enough juice or dynamics int he atmosphere to produce much in the way of severe weather. Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's risk map for Saturday.

As the front sweeps east, clearing will move across Minnesota Saturday afternoon and set up for a bright sunny cooler and less humid Sunday. It looks like we may alternate sunny and rain days next week with a slightly cooler than average temperature bias.

Here's the breakdown for the next week from NOAA's Global Forecast System model courtesy of Weatherspark.

Tonka still near record high water; no wake zone for entire lake

In my nearly 50 years of living near or visiting the big lake they call Minnetonka I can never remember the entire lake being declared a "no wake zone."

I guess that's not a big surprise, since this is the highest lake level ever recorded. Talk about weather whiplash. Tonka's levels over the past several years have mirrored our transitions from flash flood to flash drought.

Here's the latest from the Lake Minnetonka Conservation District on the no wake lake.

The Lake Minnetonka Conservation District (LMCD) Board of Directors has approved an emergency high water ordinance (herein) for Lake Minnetonka (Lake). Effective immediately, it is unlawful for a person to operate a watercraft on Lake Minnetonka (the entire Lake) at a speed that results in more than a minimum wake. “Minimum wake” means the wake moving out from a watercraft and trailing behind in a widening “V” is of insufficient size to affect other watercraft or to be detrimental to the shoreline.

Minimum wake restrictions will remain in effect until the Lake level remains below 930.30 feet for three consecutive days.  Today’s Lake level reading that was taken by the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District (MCWD) was 930.65 feet.  The MCWD is charged with mitigating flooding on Lake Minnetonka and the Minnehaha Creek via operation of the Grays Bay Dam.  LMCD staff will continue to monitor the Lake level readings posted on their website atwww.minnehahacreek.org.

Model flip-flop: season's first 90s in sight?

The medium-range forecast models have been leaning cool to seasonal through most of next week. After that, there's been a lot of flipping on the 1-2 week temperature trends.

The latest versions of the GFS suggest a hotter solution, and the potential for the season's first 90-degree reading int he metro between about June 18 and 21.

Here's a look at the developing upper level high pressure system that could bring the season's first heat wave to the Upper Midwest.

The GFS model output is cranking out 90 degrees for the first time in 2014.

Could that be the first 90s of 2014 I see on the weather horizon?

Stay tuned!