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Twin Cities rain chance late Saturday; Sunday looks showery at times

Hurricane Dorian makes landfall, will head out to sea

Forecast models continue to slow down the arrival of rain showers for many parts of Minnesota on Saturday. The shower chance in the Twin Cities metro area may hold off until late Saturday afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Saturday and Saturday evening:

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NOAA NAM simulated radar Saturday through Saturday evening
Tropicaltidbits.com

Roughly the southern half of Minnesota, plus western Wisconsin, will probably see some off and on showers on Sunday.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Friday afternoon highs are expected to reach the 70s across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin, with some 60s in far northern Minnesota.

There will be a lot of highs in the 60s on Saturday:

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Saturday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Highs in the 60s linger on Sunday:

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Sunday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Metro area highs are projected to reach about 70 degrees on Monday, followed by mid-70s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Latest on Hurricane Dorian

A hurricane makes landfall when its center passes over a coastline, not when part of its eyewall passes over a location. The National Hurricane Center’s glossary has this definition of landfall:

The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur.

Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water.

At 8 a.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center confirmed that Hurricane Dorian finally made landfall at 8:35 a.m. EDT (7:35 a.m. CDT) Friday morning at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina:

Here’s the Friday morning satellite view:

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Hurricane Dorian Friday morning
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite images, via College of DuPage

Hatteras Island is seeing a dangerous storm surge this Friday morning:

Dorian had maximum sustained winds of 90 mph Friday morning, and hurricane-force winds extended outward about 45 miles from the center of Dorian.

Some Friday morning hurricane video from North Carolina:

The National Hurricane Center shows this forecast track for the center of Hurricane Dorian over the next few days:

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Forecast track of Hurricane Dorian
NWS National Hurricane Center

The forecast graphic depicts the “cone of uncertainty” of the path of the center of Hurricane Dorian.

This update was posted Friday morning by the National Hurricane Center:

…the center of Dorian will move near or over the coast of North Carolina during the next few hours. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night.

The update also stated:

Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

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