Frigid temperatures this weekend prompt cold weather advisories

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Storm systems spin-up quickly on forecast models this time of year. Forecast models have a tough time grabbing hold of storms seven to eight days out. 

Even the usually trusty European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model has done a complete 180 on the chances for significant snow next Wednesday over the past two runs. 

 the European model suggested the potential for significant snow the day before Thanksgiving. The overnight run went poof, and now the model projects sunny skies next Wednesday.

In the shorter term, we enjoy a couple of mild days before our next, more certain rain and snowmaker rolls in Wednesday night. We hit a temperature speed bump on Thursday and Friday.  The weekend looks fairly mild for late November.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the quick-hitting system Wednesday night into Thursday.

It’s warm enough for mostly rain in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota Wednesday night. The system could end with some wet snowflakes Thursday morning in the Twin Cities. 

Accumulating snow is likely in northern Minnesota by Thursday morning.

Several models suggest widespread 2- to 4-inch-plus totals across northern Minnesota by Thursday. 

Stay tuned for models runs the next few days as they try and grapple with the potential for rain or snow next week.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Models flipping on a possible Thanksgiving week system.

NOAA via Weather Bell

NOAA GFS model Wednesday night and Thursday

NOAA via tropical tidbits

Twin Cities National Weather Service

Canadian model snowfall potential Thursday

Next rain and snow arrives Wednesday night; models flipping on Thanksgiving week system

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