Multiple storm waves across Minnesota through Friday
A moist unstable atmosphere overhead sparks strong storms at times.
They say an apple a day keeps the doctor away. I’m not sure what the thunderstorm analogy is here, but much of Minnesota may see a storm a day through Friday.
Tropical air mass returns
It seems obvious, but the most important ingredient for summer storm is moisture. That comes in the form of higher dew points oozing north from the Gulf of Mexico. Watch the moisture pulse spread across Minnesota through Thursday courtesy of NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model. Dew points well into the 70s will feel swampy by Thursday afternoon.
Multiple storm waves
Forecasting summer thunderstorms is often an hour by hour endeavor. But two to three primary storm timing windows appear likely through Friday.
Storms favor the northern Twin Cities as of this post. Another batch of storms could form overnight into Thursday morning. Then better-organized waves appear likely Thursday afternoon and evening sweeping east from the Red River Valley into Minnesota.
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Here’s NOAA’s NAM 3 km solution.
Severe risk
An enhanced risk for severe storms covers the Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota Thursday.
Most of Minnesota fall under a slight risk for severe storms Friday. The best chances for storms in the Twin Cities appear late Thursday night and again Friday early evening.
Stay tuned.