Severe weather likely again overnight and Friday
Tracking two more potentially severe storm waves across Minnesota.
Doppler radars will be glowing again tonight and Friday across the Upper Midwest.
Two more severe storm waves will likely cross parts of Minnesota through Friday. The first event cranks up tonight in northwest Minnesota and could rumble into the Twin Cities after midnight. Friday’s storm wave looks likely to from in central Minnesota and could impact the Twin Cities late Friday afternoon into the evening.
Here’s a breakdown of storm coverage and timing through Friday.
Wave No. 1: Northwest Minnesota tonight
Our warm humid atmosphere across the Upper Midwest is increasingly unstable. Dew points have surged into the tropical 70s across most of Minnesota.
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A cold front in the Red River Valley will cut into the warm unstable air mass. That will trigger a line of storms in northwest Minnesota this evening.
Forecast models agree on a band of strong to severe storms blowing up from the Red River Valley into northwest Minnesota this evening. The (severe) storm line will likely blow through the central Minnesota lakes tonight and may fade as it approaches the Twin Cities after midnight, likely toward 2 a.m.
Here’s NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution solution.
There is an enhanced risk for severe storms tonight across northwest and north-central Minnesota.
Wave No. 2: Friday
The frontal system edges deeper into Minnesota Friday. That will trigger another wave fo storms Friday afternoon across central Minnesota. Friday’s wave likely blows into eastern Minnesota and the Twin Cities late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
Again, there are forecast model differences on storm timing and intensity. Here’s NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model for Friday afternoon and evening.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has upgraded Friday storm risk to enhanced across central Minnesota including the Twin Cities.
Here’s the (technical) language from NOAA’s SPC convective outlook regarding the potential for damaging winds, tornadoes and large hail Friday.
Although storms will be along a cold front, supercells will be possible, either a broken line or QLCS. If early-day outflow does not hamper destabilization too much, very large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. SRH will be strongest over northern MN as a 40-50 kt low-level jet impinges on the outflow. Capping increases with eastward extent toward the MS River, but at least some damaging wind threat should continue into those areas as organized convection is anticipated.
Stay tuned for severe weather watches and warnings tonight and again Friday. Remember you can get automated storm warnings @MPR Weather on twitter and on the MPR severe weather live blog.