Unlikely, but possible: How the presidency could hinge on Minnesota
The postponement of Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District election until February following the death of a third-party candidate could have unexpected consequences in the event of a disputed presidential election.
The death of Legal Marijuana Now Party candidate Adam Weeks will force a special election next February under a 2013 Minnesota law. That law means the seat, held now by DFL incumbent Angie Craig, will stay vacant from Jan. 3 until the February special election.
One of the ripple effects of that vacancy could be potentially massive — in an unlikely but possible political scenario that hasn’t happened in nearly 200 years.
This scenario turns on relatively obscure provisions of the Constitution that govern what happens if no presidential candidate secures the 270 votes needed for a majority of the Electoral College.
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In that case, under the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution (modifying similar provisions of Article II, Section 1), the United States House of Representatives picks the president and the Senate picks the vice president.
But the House doesn’t just hold a vote and give the presidency to the winner. Instead, the vote is “by states.” Each state’s delegation in Congress — the new Congress, elected in November and taking the oath of office in January — decides which candidate they’ll vote for, and each state gets one vote.
Here’s how the 12th Amendment describes the process:
If no person have such majority (in the Electoral College), then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.
Although Democrats control a majority of seats in the House, Republicans currently hold a majority of House seats in 26 states, while Democrats have a majority in 23. Pennsylvania is tied.
The upcoming election, of course, could change that balance.
Minnesota is one of the 23 states where Democrats control a majority of the seats. Democrats represent the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th congressional districts, while Republicans represent the 1st, 6th and 8th — a 5-3 Democratic advantage out of eight total seats.
If all incumbent candidates on the ballot in November win, then when the new Congress gets sworn in on Jan. 3, the Minnesota delegation would have a 4-3 Democratic edge with the vacant 2nd District seat, currently held by Democratic Rep. Angie Craig.
Those four Democratic lawmakers could then cast Minnesota’s vote for Joe Biden.
Several congressional seats in the state, however, are hotly contested. The Cook Political Report rates three Minnesota districts as in play:
The 1st District, where Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn faces Democrat Dan Feehan, is rated “Lean Republican”
The 2nd District, where Craig faces Republican Tyler Kistner, is rated “Lean Democrat”
The 7th District, where Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson faces Republican Michelle Fischbach, is rated “Tossup.”
If Fischbach beats Peterson to win the 7th, seen as the GOP’s best pickup opportunity here, and all other incumbents win, then on Jan. 3 the Minnesota congressional delegation would have a 4-3 Republican edge with the 2nd District empty — and would be able to cast Minnesota’s vote in the House for Donald Trump.
If a majority of Minnesota’s congressional delegation couldn’t decide on a candidate to support, it would have to abstain. This would be the case if Minnesota’s delegation had four Democrats and four Republicans.
This scenario, in which the House of Representatives picked the president, has only happened twice in American history, both in the country’s early decades:
In 1800, a now-amended provision of the original Constitution gave the presidency to the candidate with the most electoral votes and the vice presidency to the candidate with the second-most. But ostensible running mates Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr ended up with the same number of votes, leaving the House to decide which one became president.
The House ended up picking Jefferson (a moment dramatized in the musical “Hamilton”). To prevent this from recurring, Congress later passed the 12th Amendment, eliminating the old system where the runner-up became vice president.In 1824, four major candidates split the vote. The House ended up electing John Quincy Adams as president, instead of front-runner Andrew Jackson.
Jackson, alleging his defeat had happened because of a “corrupt bargain,” would defeat Adams in a rematch four years later.
Other disputed presidential elections haven’t gone through this process.
The 2000 election, for example, was settled by a decision of the U.S. Supreme Court.
The 1876 election, in which several states’ results were disputed, was settled by a commission containing representatives from the House, Senate and Supreme Court, backed up by a compromise between Democratic and Republican political leaders.