Severe weather is likely Thursday, but rain chances are better Sunday

Temperatures turn much cooler next week

A cold front Thursday brings an elevated severe weather risk, but rain stays limited. Another storm Sunday brings a better rain chance while ushering in the coldest weather so far this month.

Thursday’s forecast

The same storm system that brought warmer air across the state again Wednesday, along with isolated showers and storms in the afternoon through the overnight, is still influencing Minnesota.

It kept temperatures well above average overnight, with most of Minnesota starting Thursday in the 60s and 70s. Highs also stay warm, with 80s expected for most of the state.

weather graphic
Thursday high temperatures
National Weather Service

While the storm has cleared through much of the state, the associated cold front will linger over southeastern Minnesota most of Thursday. This provides the instability needed to become a firing line for showers and storms, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours.

Those conditions bring both needed rain and the risk for severe weather.

weather graphic
Thursday's severe weather outlook
National Weather Service

The severe weather risk is predominantly for large hail and damaging winds, but there could be isolated tornadoes, particularly near the Iowa border.

Much cooler weather ahead

Behind the system Thursday, there will be a temperature contrast Friday, with cooler 60s and 70s north, and upper 80s south.

weather graphic
Twin Cities forecast through Sunday
National Weather Service

By Saturday and Sunday, the entire state sees more seasonable June highs, with 70s north and mid to lower 80s south.

Saturday will be the sunnier day of the weekend, because by Saturday evening, another storm system starts moving showers and storms into western Minnesota, and that precipitation spreads statewide Saturday night. 

Scattered showers and storms continue through Sunday and into early Monday.

weather graphic
Sunday afternoon forecast storm position
Tropical Tidbits

It currently looks like this storm should bring needed rain to most of the state, with many areas seeing one-quarter inch or more.

That system has much cooler air behind it and is expected to drop highs into only the 60s and 70s by Monday. In fact, temperatures much of next week could stay below average, which is the first time so far during this record-setting hot June that we are looking at a cooler than average stretch.

weather graphic
Temperatures outlook June 22 to 26

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Monday through Friday morning.

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