Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Severe weather and air quality problems Wednesday

After the storms clear, the heat builds back across Minnesota

Following a very active day Wednesday, with everything from severe storms to smoke in the air, Minnesota’s weather returns to the hot and dry pattern we have seen much of the summer.

Wednesday’s forecast

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8:50 a.m. Wednesday radar
National Weather Service

As of 9 a.m. Wednesday, a potent storm system is already moving showers and storms across southern Minnesota, including a couple severe storms along the Iowa border. With low pressure tracking right across southern Minnesota during the day, the wet weather spreads across all of southern Minnesota by late morning.

The instability with this system is high enough that particularly in the afternoon and early evening hours more severe weather is likely. There is and isolated severe weather is possible in most of southern Minnesota, with damaging winds the highest risk. That risk increases as you head southeast, with the Twin Cities in a “slight” risk, meaning scattered severe storms are possible.

weather graphic
Wednesday's severe weather outlook
Storm Prediction Center

The southeastern corner of Minnesota, including Rochester and Albert Lea, are in an even higher “enhanced” risk area, meaning numerous severe storms are likely. Storms with damaging winds are still the most likely, along with large hail, but it is also probable that a few thunderstorms will produce tornadoes. Because of the risk in southeastern Minnesota, a severe thunderstorm watch has already been issued for that area until 3 p.m.

Those thunderstorms will additionally produce heavy downpours at times, and much of southern, especially southeastern, Minnesota can expect around an inch of rain, with localized higher amounts.

weather graphic
Forecast rainfall through early Thursday
National Weather Service

With most of the storms expected south, rain totals quickly taper off as you head north, and the northern half of Minnesota misses most of the accumulating rainfall.

It is unfortunate that northern Minnesota will miss most of the rain for two reasons. First, the rain is desperately needed given the state’s drought conditions. Second, the rain would have helped at least temporarily diminish the smoke in the atmosphere from fires in Canada. Instead, the wind pattern keeps pulling smoke across northern Minnesota Wednesday, continuing the air quality alert until Friday.

Minnesota started the day seasonable with 50s and 60s, but the widespread clouds and rain keep temperatures slightly cooler for highs. Much of southern Minnesota will be in the 70s. Northern Minnesota should see a few more breaks of sunshine and make it in to the low 80s.

weather graphic
Wednesday high temperatures
National Weather Service

Extended forecast

The storm system moves through fairly quickly, with showers and storms already starting to clear late Wednesday, and dry and mostly sunny skies back Thursday.

weather graphic
Forecast weather pattern late Thursday
National Weather Service

Highs return to the 80s for much of the state Thursday, with the warmest weather northwest.

High pressure settles back over Minnesota, and we begin what is forecast to be another hot and predominantly dry trend that lasts through the weekend and likely all next week.

For most of the state including the Twin Cities, the return to the heat will be gradual with widespread 90s by Monday, but western and northern Minnesota could start to see a couple 90s as early as Friday.

Here is that forecast for the Twin Cities:

weather graphic
Twin Cities forecast through Sunday
National Weather Service

Unfortunately, the combination of hot and dry conditions will once again accelerate our drought situation, particularly in places that miss Wednesday’s rainfall.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Monday through Friday morning.

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