Greenwood Fire weather forecast: Southerly winds shift to westerly Saturday

Rain chances arrive Friday night

Greenwood Fire info
Greenwood Fire info
U.S. Forest Service/Facebook

The Greenwood Fire continues to burn south of Minnesota Highway 1 in Lake County.

Southerly winds continue to push the fire generally northward through Friday. On Saturday, winds will shift behind a cold front and blow from the west. Lower humidity and gusty west winds should push the fire eastward on Saturday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s GFS model tracks the southerly winds shifting into the west on Saturday. The loop below runs from 7 p.m. Thursday to 7 p.m. Saturday.

NOAA GFS wind forecast
NOAA GFS wind forecast Thursday through Saturday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Rain chance Friday night

The cold front crossing Minnesota will trigger scattered rain and thunderstorms Friday night into early Saturday across much of Minnesota.

The GFS model loop below simulates radar between 7 p.m. Friday and 7 a.m. Saturday. Note the heaviest rains favor western Minnesota, with less rainfall coverage as the system moves east through northeast Minnesota and the fire zone.

NOAA GFS simulated radar
NOAA GFS simulated radar between 7 p.m. Friday and 7 a.m. Saturday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Most forecast models favor heavier, multi-inch rainfall totals across northwest Minnesota. That’s good news for some of the deepest drought areas in Minnesota. But little rainfall is currently forecast in the fire zone and across northeast Minnesota.

European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast
European model (ECMWF) rainfall forecast through Saturday.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Saturday’s fire behavior will need to be watched closely with the wind blows from the west with lower humidities. The Greenwood Fire may push further east on Saturday.

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