Warmer & windy Saturday, with scattered t-storms at times; severe weather is possible

Highs in the 70s are expected Saturday afternoon in much of central and southern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin. It will be our first 70s of 2022 in the Twin Cities.

Scattered thunderstorms at times

Thunderstorms moved through parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday morning, and additional scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk (shaded yellow) of severe weather in much of Minnesota Saturday afternoon into Saturday night:

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible:

The portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin that are shaded dark-green in the severe weather outlook could see an isolated severe thunderstorm.

The Storm Prediction Center shows a 5% chance of a tornado in portions of west-central and northwestern Minnesota this afternoon and tonight:

The Storm Prediction Center will update the severe weather outlook as needed this afternoon and this evening.

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1 p.m. Update

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch, valid until 7 p.m. Saturday evening, for portions of western Minnesota:

Here are details of the tornado watch:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Minnesota Eastern North Dakota Northeast South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Arcing band(s) of relatively low-topped storms are expected to further develop and intensify from northeast South Dakota into southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota this afternoon. Severe hail and damaging winds are a possibility. Sufficient low-level moisture (near 60F dewpoints) and low-level shear will also support a tornado risk, particularly near the arcing surface boundary. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles south of Jamestown ND to 40 miles north northeast of Alexandria MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 19035.

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You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Warnings and advisories

A strong low pressure system over eastern South Dakota is bringing windy conditions to Minnesota today. Wind advisories have been posted from west-central Minnesota through southern Minnesota today:

Here are details of the wind advisory:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 303 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 MNZ047-048-054>057-064-065-073-074-082-091-231615- /O.CON.KMPX.WI.Y.0011.220423T1400Z-220424T0000Z/ Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi- Yellow Medicine-Renville-Redwood-Brown-Watonwan-Martin- Including the cities of Morris, Glenwood, Madison, Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Granite Falls, Olivia, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St James, and Fairmont 303 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

A high wind warning covers Lincoln, Lyon, and Rock counties in southwestern Minnesota until 7 p.m. this Saturday, due to wind gusts potentially as high as 60 mph.

There is also a red flag warning for portions of southwestern Minnesota, where outdoor burning is not recommended:

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 327 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 IAZ002-013-021-032-MNZ071-072-080-089-097-098-SDZ040-055-056-061- 065-068-231630- /O.NEW.KFSD.FW.W.0016.220423T1800Z-220424T0100Z/ Osceola-O`Brien-Cherokee-Ida-Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Nobles-Pipestone- Rock-Brookings-Lake-Moody-McCook-Hutchinson-Bon Homme- 327 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a Red Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening. * AFFECTED AREA...In Iowa, Osceola, O`Brien, Cherokee and Ida. In Minnesota, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Nobles, Pipestone and Rock. In South Dakota, Brookings, Lake, Moody, McCook, Hutchinson and Bon Homme. * WINDS...Southwest 30 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 to 35 percent. * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.

There are flood warnings in effect today for portions of northwestern and north-central Minnesota:

Details on those flood warnings can be found here.

Heavy snow is expected this weekend in parts of North Dakota:

There’s a blizzard warning this weekend for western North Dakota:

Info on the blizzard conditions in western North Dakota can be found here.

Sunday rain chances highest to the north

The best chance for Sunday showers will be in northern Minnesota.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 5 a.m. Sunday to 11 p.m. Sunday:

There will be some snowflakes mixed with the rain showers in parts of northwestern Minnesota.

Temperature trends

Sunday highs will be in the 40s in much of Minnesota, with 50s from the Twin Cities into southeastern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the lower 40s on Monday, followed by mid 40s Tuesday and upper 40s Wednesday, then mid 50s Thursday and around 60 on Friday.

We could see some showers Wednesday night and Thursday…check updates.

Weather nugget

The last time that we saw a Twin Cities temperature in the 70s was Oct. 19, 2021.  Last April, we had Twin Cities highs of 70 degrees or warmer on five of the first seven days in April.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.